Nigerian Elections: Challenges for the Mahammadu Buhari Government

On March 28, 2015, Nigerians elected to power a new government after 16 years. This was the first time in Nigerian election history that a sitting president was voted out of power by an opposition party. The 72-year-old opposition leader of the All Progressive Congress (APC) and excommander-in-chief of the Nigerian Army, Mahammadu Buhari, defeated Goodluck Jonathan’s Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). APC carried Nigeria’s two biggest cities, Lagos and Kano, and also had massive victories in its northern territories. Overall, Buhari won 21 states, while Jonathan took 15 along with the territory of the capital city, Abuja. Buhari had contested and had conceded losses in the last three elections. But out of the three, this is Buhari’s second contest against Jonathan which proved to be a sweet victory.

The current Nigerian election commission, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), has been commended by the EU Observer Mission for conducting a transparent and fair election in the wake of difficulties. The election had to be postponed from early February, which was when it was initially scheduled. INEC had said this was because the military had advised that it would be unable to provide security as its soldiers were committed to the fight against Boko Haram in the north. However, despite the constant threat of Boko Haram looming, the Nigerian people were not afraid and came out in large numbers to vote. The use of technology was crucial in motivating the public to vote. It was the first time that a biometric voting system was used. In addition to this, Nigeria being the biggest market for cell phones in Africa, the population used this medium to exchange ideas and discuss their concerns and queries about the elections. Femi Longe, cofounder of Co-Creation Hub said that technology had helped people get involved in the conversation around democracy and elections.1 This was very important as the enthusiasm for the election had waned when the election dates were postponed. 2 Also a website called Govote.nja was launched with a focus on registering voters of the most populous African nation of 170 million. 3

Buhari, upon winning the election, said: “the global triumph of democracy has shown that another and a preferable path to change is possible”. However looking at Buhari’s past, some feel that the prospects for change are remote. This is because Buhari’s military regime which lasted only 20 months from 1983-1985 was draconian. He had systematically repressed freedom of expression through jailing journalists, radical public intellectuals and student protestors. On the other hand, he has also been credited for taking a strong stand against deep-rooted corruption by purging corrupt officials after taking power in the 1983 coup. However, this did not last long as Buhari was walked out of his office at gun point by his fellow soldiers in 1985. However, now that he is elected, Nigerians would want to see whether this time around he will work for the common good of Nigerians.

Buhari has inherited a fragile state. Nigeria is considered as a key country in Africa because of its size and political and economic weight in the region. It is Africa’s largest economy, largest oil producer and the most populous country. However, under the former president Goodluck Johnathan, although the economy was expanding, there were other problems that Nigeria was dealing with which if not solved under the current regime, would stall Nigeria’s development. Hence, Buhari’s APC is faced with challenges ranging from the realm of security to economy, political and social.

First, Nigeria is home to a corrupt government apparatus. According to the Transparency International, Nigeria ranks 136 out of 175 states in terms of perception of corruption. Buhari has garnered his votes on the pretext of the tough stand he had taken against corruption during his military rule from 1983-1985 and his credibility was stronger in comparison to Jonathan’s. People did not take the former president’s words seriously when he said that “we are fighting corruption. It is not by publicly jailing people. Yes, we believe in suppressing corruption, but our emphasis is in prevention.” 4 This is because the difference in tackling corruption can be clearly seen in their campaign pitches. For PDP corruption was one of the many problems to be solved, whereas for Buhari it is a key priority and he has promised to wipe corruption out of the political system. To quote him: “If Nigeria doesn’t kill corruption, corruption will kill Nigeria”.5

The second challenge that the government needs to address is the Nigerian economic crisis. Nigeria is suffering from the phenomenon of resource crisis. 80 per cent of its national income is dependent on the revenue it receives by exporting oil. However, recently the international prices of oil have plummeted. This had led to many public sector jobs being cut. Already, 24 per cent of Nigerians are unemployed and further cuts in jobs will create social dysfunctions. Buhari has promised to create 20,000 jobs per state, adding up to 720,000. 6 He also pledged support for the agricultural sector and soft loans for small manufacturers to boost job creation. In addition to this, Buhari needs to create jobs in the power sector, water and sanitation sector, road networks and infrastructure. He has promised to complete stalled road projects and improve infrastructure development nationwide, especially in the north-east; and in the energy sector he will tackle the corruption and mismanagement and adopt a market-based approach. In addition to this, he also favours exploration of non-oil sectors for job creation. 7

Third, even though Nigeria is credited to be the first African nation to be Ebola free as a result of the collaboration between international organisations and the government, Nigerian people still suffer from health related issues. Nigeria has 40,000 pregnancy related deaths. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that the Nigerian government should spend 15 per cent of its budget on health as Nigeria spends only 6 per cent. 8 Hence, Buhari’s government will have to allocate funding to this sector when other pressing issues related to security and economic development need equal attention. The new Nigerian government will also have to prioritise education. Lack of access to education is a reason behind Boko Haram’s success in recruiting minors and men into their group, especially in the north. In 2011 in northern Nigeria, half of the men had no education at all, only 7 per cent completed primary education, and only 6 per cent completed secondary education. Education in the north should therefore be a priority for Buhari’s government. This is important not only for men, but it is also essential for women; in 2011, 65 per cent of women had no education, 6 per cent completed primary education, and 3 per cent completed secondary education9

Last but not the least, the most pressing challenge that the new government has to deal with is to eliminate the threat and presence of the Boko Haram insurgents. Since 2014 more than 6000 civilians have been killed. One million Nigerians have been forcibly displaced and 200,000 have fled to Cameroon, Niger and Chad. The past government has been criticized for not doing enough to fighting this menace. Thus far, the government has failed to rescue the 276 girls that had been kidnapped from Chipok School in north-eastern Nigeria in April 2014. There is a lack of good governance and heavy military action in dealing with the insurgent group. The international community, especially United States has also been reluctant to aid the Nigerian military in their effort to defeat Boko Haram due its history of human rights abuses.

In this context Buhari’s win in the elections is of global significance as the world would want to see a former commander-in-chief lead the army to defeat Boko Haram which has inflicted violence on the Nigerian people. The international community feels that given his experience and knowledge of the northern territory, Buhari can oversee a coordinated effort to destroy the insurgency. 10 If Buhari’s government achieves progress in fighting the Boko Haram group, it will also lessen the friction between Nigeria and certain western powers like the United States who had disagreements with Jonathan over Nigeria’s approach to countering Boko Haram. 11

Buhari and the All Progressive Congress have made many pledges to bring Nigeria back on the road to development. However, the challenges that this new government faces are many. It will have to provide and develop social policies to reduce inequalities in order to prevent young men joining the Boko Haram group and inflict violence on the Nigerian people. APC would also need to take steps to reduce institutional corruption to make sure that the elites are held accountable for their actions. It will need to invest heavily in other sectors to make Nigeria less dependent on oil exports and create more jobs for the unemployed. But the key priority for Buhari will be to maintain security within the country. Achieving security and stability within Nigeria through the elimination of the Boko Haram insurgents is the only way by which Nigeria can fully achieve true economic and social development.

• 1. “Meet the ‘geek squads’ bringing transparency to Nigerian elections”, CNN, March 26, 2015, at http:// edition.cnn.com/2015/03/26/africa/nigeria-election-tech/, (Accessed on April 1, 2015).
• 2. “Call for calm after Nigerian elections postponed”, RTE News, February 8, 2015, at http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/ 0208/678654-nigeria-elections/, (Accessed on March 15, 2015).
• 3. See Note 1.
• 4. “How Nigeria’s presidential election works”, BBC, March 27, 2015, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa- 31111572, (Accessed on April 3, 2015).
• 5. Ibid.
• 6. Ibid.
• 7. Ibid.
• 8. Ibid.
• 9. Ibid.
• 10. John Kerry, “Global Spotlight Firmly Fixed on Nigerian Elections”, The Huffington Post, March 22, 2015, at http:// www. huffingt onpost . c om/johnker r y/global-sp ot light -fir m-fix ed -on-niger ian-elec t ions_ b_6916188.html?ir=India&adsSiteOverride=in, (Accessed on April 10, 2015).
• 11. Ibid.