Twists and Turns in Zimbabwe’s Succession Debate

Introduction

The entry of Grace Mugabe, the First Lady of Zimbabwe, into mainstream politics began in August 2014 when she was nominated to head Zimbabwe African Union- Patriotic Front (ZANU PF) Women’s League- a position that she should be confirmed in at the December 2014 elective congress. If elected, she would also take up a seat in the party’s politburo. Her husband, President Robert Mugabe is over 90 years. So there are strong signals from his camp of imminent departure, and a jostling for a space in the front row by his lieutenants Joyce Mujuru and Emmerson Munangagwa.

The Succession Debate

The succession debate has haunted the ZANU PF right from its foundation in the 1950s. Given the fact that the leader of the party is well into his 90s, and old-age ailments are fast catching up with him, factionalism within the party has been the order of the day.

The difficulties in succession owe less to idiosyncrasies of the incumbent who moved from being the leader of one of the guerrilla movements into office in 1980 and has retained party and state power ever since. When his party assumed power, it was quick to penetrate the state’s institutions making sure that the party was indistinguishable from the state. The geopolitics of the region and local political environment dictated, necessitated and justified such a stance given the fact that apartheid South Africa was still alive and implementing its Total National Strategy policy of destabilizing the whole of Southern Africa in its attempts to cling to white minority rule. The party’s politburo, central committee, and cabinet thus became instruments though which to pre-empt or manage dissent and the succession puzzle. In the meantime, patronage kept the state apparatus well-greased.

Every party congress since 1994 has held out the possibility of having a free discussion on who should occupy the post of the party’s first secretary and the head of state. Decision and debate on a plan for succession were rife. This never materialised although most members of the party hierarchy have never been reconciled to the idea of a president-for-life. Many political elites in the party were understandably lukewarm to the incumbent’s political bid in 2002.

The Tslolotsho Succession Bid

The issue of factionalism and succession came to a head in December 2004, the month leading to the party’s congress. Two expectations were rife though unacceptable within the party. First that the incumbent would retire at the end of his term in 2008.Second, that whoever was elected by congress to the vacant post of the party vice presidency would be the incumbent’s successor.

The contest for the vice president (who would also be the Second Secretary of the party) was between a decorated female former guerrilla commander and living heroine Joyce Mujuru and a party political elite formerly in-charge of the intelligence portfolio Emmerson Munangagwa. Munangagwa’s campaign was heavily backed by the party’s chief propagandist Professor Jonathan Moyo whilst Joyce’s bid was led by her husband (now late) General Solomon Mujuru who had been the Deputy Commander of the Zimbabwe African Liberation Army (ZANLA) (the fighting wing of ZANU PF). Solomon had assisted the incumbent to be propelled into the party leadership in 1977 as there was still resistance from the rank –and- file in ZANLA who viewed the incumbent’s accession to power as an imposition and a diversion of the protracted revolution which was progressing well, with marked achievements and in the right direction. The incumbent was then ushered into the hot seat amid acrimony and misgivings to Solomon by the rank-and- file in ZANLA.

By August 2004 Munangagwa had secured support from seven of the ZANU PF’s electoral provinces. Joyce Mujuru was a surprise candidate supported by the Women’s Congress on the basis of a resolution passed in 1999 requiring one of the two Vice Presidents to be a woman.

Faced by such a belated but stubborn challenge, Munangangwa’s supporters led by Jonathan Moyo organised a meeting at Tslolotsho in western Zimbabwe. This botched plan which came to be known as the ‘Tslolotsho Succession’ was to oust the then Vice President Joseph Musika (late) and National Chairman John Nkomo (late) in order to prevent the election of Joseph Musika as second Vice President. The Vice President’s position was to be contested between Munangagwa and Thejewe Lesabe with Patrick Chinamasa standing in as National Chairman and John Nkomo assuming the Secretary for Administration post.

The incumbent found himself in a limbo between the “Tslolotsho Gang” on the one hand, and Joyce and Solomon Mujuru on the other, as well as various political allies across the ten provinces and their loyalists in the military and security sectors. Most of the ‘Tslolotsho Gang” was exposed by December 2004; and their plan thus failed. However they were never dubbed as rebels or counter revolutionaries as other groups that had attempted to take power had been. Joseph Musika and John Nkomo retained their positions. Joyce emerged as the Vice President of both the party and state. The congratulatory and closing remarks at that 2004 Congress implied that Joyce would become his successor and should consider being the party leader.

A Balance of Force?

The big question which emerged out of the 2004 Congress however, was to what extent did the outcome of the party election represent the long term but ever unimagined victory of ZANLA power within ZANU PF represented by Solomon and Joyce Mujuru? Had ZANLA overturned the ‘ideal ‘civil military relations that had obtained since 1977? Never in its history had the military been given the chance to run the party and drive the revolution. Any such moves by the military were considered rebellious and tantamount to a counter revolution. Lethal killings/ eliminations were then instituted against the purported counter revolutionaries and the few who were lucky enough were excommunicated and disowned by the party.

In a wide ranging interview in 2007, the incumbent accused his detractors inside and outside the party of unbridled ambition and impatience. He said that he was not going to be ‘pushed out’ prematurely and expectations that Joyce would soon succeed him were mistaken. The incumbent was fully aware that a substantial section of the party leadership, senior military and security hierarchy wanted him to throw in the towel or hand over the baton stick to someone else at the end of 2008. Those who campaigned for his exit argued that:

• The incumbent had over stayed his usefulness at the helm of the party and the state.
• The incumbent lacks the tact to tackle the economic and political malaise.
• Zimbabwe’s fortunes can be revived under a new chief executive.
• Change in leadership will save ZANU PF from almost certain doom
• His retirement would inspire the whole nation heralding a new era in Zimbabwe given that Zimbabwe is surrounded by countries which have had a smooth leadership transition ie Zambia, South Africa, Mozambique, Botswana and Namibia.

Enter the First Lady

The First Lady, Grace Mugabe openly entered into politics in October 2014 on the basis that she had been called on to do so by the outgoing Chairperson of the Women’s League Oppah Muchinguri. The entry of the First Lady into the political fray has left many people baffled, but in a way, given clarity to the succession debate. Her entry has generated a lot of debate about the incumbent’s succession plan at a time when the integrity of the party is at stake.

The First Lady believed that her entry into politics was God given, though many Zimbabweans have mixed feelings over her sudden and meteoritic rise in the Zimbabwean political arena during the ongoing succession debate. The First Lady has never held a post in the party. Grace was ‘called in’ to rescue the estranged factions within the protracted succession matrix.

Grace started her ‘meet the people tours’ in early October 2014. In her address during the meetings she touched on a variety of political issues that have left a big wedge within the party. Initially it seemed to many Zimbabweans that Grace wanted to take the opportunity to thank Oppah for endorsing her name for the top Women’s League post come the impending congress in December 2014.

At the beginning of the much hyped tour, Grace spoke tongue-in cheek attacking Joyce but as she wrapped up her tour, it was clear she was on a mission to destroy Joyce’s ambition to take over the leadership of ZANU PF from her ageing husband. Grace attacked the Vice President as being corrupt, extortionist, incompetent, thus positioning herself to wrest power from the incumbent. Grace further cast aspersions on Joyce trashing not just her impeccable war credentials and contributions but also maliciously painting her as inept amongst other mendacious accusations. The Vice President was accused that she was working day and night with the Americans and the opposition parties to topple the president .Grace went on to allege that two opposition political parties had been formed in Joyce’s house and threatened Joyce to resign from her post before the impending Congress or else be “baby dumped” by Grace.

Speaking at the annual luncheon for legislators on 29 October 2014, the incumbent was at pains to straddle the middle of the road path as he rallied the fighting factions to close ranks and to maintain the status quo in the presidium. This utterance by the incumbent appeared to fly straight in the face of the hostile drive and hype to oust Joyce and her close lieutenants.

In this succession wrangle, all players are using the ammunition in their quiver. However whoever will be enthroned as the leader of the Women’s League at the impending December 2014 ZANU PF Congress will have to find way of working with the Vice President. Whatever happens in this succession wrangle, optimism is needed about the opportunities available to attend to the economic malaise and the need to look beyond politics so as to strategically plan to alleviate the conditions of the suffering citizens.

Frederick Chakupa Sadomba is a Visiting Fellow at IDSA. He is Senior Lecturer/Acting Chairperson at the Department of Peace, Leadership and Conflict Management, Zimbabwe Open University, Harare, Zimbabwe.