Cmde. Abhay K. Singh (Retd.), Research Fellow, MP-IDSA spoke on the topic “US National Defence Strategy: Key Highlights” at the Monday Meeting held on 7 November 2022. The session was chaired by Ms. Shruti Pandalai, Associate Fellow and was attended by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General, MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, senior scholars & research analysts of MP-IDSA.

Executive Summary

The National Defence Strategy (NDS) released on 27 October 2022 is an attempt by the Biden Administration to map the strategic priorities of the US in the forthcoming decade. The NDS identifies China as a strategic challenger for the US and unequivocally declares that a clash of US interests with China is inevitable. Russia has been described as an acute threat due to its ongoing actions in Ukraine. While Iran, North Korea and extremist organisations have also been identified as actors who pose threats to the US. The NDS also enumerates the various emerging domains such as cyberspace, space and Artificial intelligence (AI) as influencing factors in the security dynamics of the US. For the first time, the NDS has listed grey zone activities by US adversaries as a major threat to its national security. Also, climate change and its effects have been listed among the key challenges to US national security. The NDS has envisaged various approaches to address the various security challenges of the US. The first among these approaches is the concept of integrated deterrence which refers to the seamless combination of capabilities across regions, domains, allies and intergovernmental capabilities tailored according to specific targets and circumstances.

The NDS brings out that the US is committed to building a resilient security architecture in the Indo-Pacific region. In order to achieve this the NDS seeks to reinvigorate US-Japan bilateral relations for building a credible force structure in the Indo-Pacific. Also, the NDS brings out that the US aims to deepen its cooperation with Australia through the enhancement of interoperability between their respective militaries. India also figures as a very important partner of the US for maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific.  Regarding Taiwan, the NDS unequivocally lays emphasis on the US commitment to protecting Taiwan from any external aggression. The NDS reiterates the US’s commitment to NATO’s collective security and also lays emphasis on improving military posturing for deterring aggression in Eastern Europe. The document also brings forth a concept known as the “By-With-Through Approach” for describing the US strategy in Iraq and Syria. Regarding Africa, the NDS focuses on countering violent extremism and engaging in capacity building with local partners to degrade terrorist organisations in the region. On the Arctic, the NDS states that the US posturing in the region would be calibrated and collaboration with the Arctic allies would be deepened.

Detailed Report

Ms. Shruti Pandalai, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA commenced the session by describing the recently released National Defence Strategy (NDS) document as an attempt by the Biden Administration to map the strategic priorities for the United States (US) both at home and abroad. She also pointed out that the classified draft of the NDS was initially sent to the US Congress in March 2022 and the Biden Administration’s 2023 budget request for US$ 773 billion is a four percent increase compared to the previous years.    Ms. Pandalai brought out that the NDS document identifies China as a pacing challenge for the US with a specific mention of China’s growing nuclear arsenal. She also stated that the NDS describes Russia as an acute threat due to the ongoing Ukraine Crisis and nuclear threats issued by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Ms. Pandalai brought out that the US strategic community is divided over the view brought out in the NDS that Washington does not consider Moscow as a systematic challenger in the long-term. She also highlighted some of the other key aspects of the NSS that point out the threats posed to the US by an unstable Iran, isolated North Korea and non-traditional threats like climate change. With these opening remarks, Ms. Pandalai invited Cmde. Abhay Singh to give his presentation.

Cmde. Abhay K. Singh, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA, began his presentation by explaining that the US’s NDS and other related guidance documents have evolved from the requirement of the Goldwater-Nichols Department of Defence Reorganisation Act of 1986. This act compels the US Administration to provide a clear articulation of strategic challenges and opportunities, while also providing details on how the administration plans to address these challenges. Cmde. Singh brought out that initially the NDS was envisaged to be published every year but progressively the frequency of its publication has reduced to only once during a US Presidential term. He further explained that the current NDS is focused on steering US policy through what the Biden Administration describes as the ‘decisive decade’ and lays extensive focus on China. He brought out that the NDS states its key objective is to dissuade China from engaging in coercive tactics to achieve its national goals. He also stated that the document unequivocally declares that a clash of US interests with China is inevitable. Cmde. Singh underscored that the NDS directs the US Department of Defence (DoD) to act urgently to sustain and strengthen US’s capability for deterring China.

He pointed out that the NDS for the very first time recognises both nuclear-armed China and Russia as highly capable and potential adversaries of the US. Cmde. Singh then brought out the four key priorities that the document enumerates as the main challenges of the US. China is the first among them and the document underscores the necessity of the US to deter and prevail against aggression by China in the Indo-Pacific as a key priority. Through the assessment of the various previously released US strategic documents, Cmde. Singh stated that the US approach to China has evolved considerably over two decades. The 2002 Quadrennial Defence Review (QDR) had no mention of China, while the 2006 QDR stated that the US intends to encourage China to play a constructive and peaceful role in global geopolitics. The 2010 QDR stated that both China and India would shape the international system in which the US would continue to remain the most powerful actor. The 2014 QDR identified China as among the nations that would create problems for the US. It was in the 2018 QDR that for the first time China was named as a strategic competitor to the US. Subsequently, the 2022 NDS has identified China as the most prominent challenge to US’s national security.

Cmde. Singh stated that the NDS highlights China’s aggressive rhetoric in the Indo-Pacific as its attempts to undermine US alliances and security partners in the region. The document brings out that China’s heavy-handed approach to Taiwan and coercive posturing along the East China Sea (ECS), South China Sea (SCS) and the Line of Actual Control (LAC) can destabilise the region and lead to miscalculations. Also Cmde. Singh brought out that the document lays emphasis on China’s growing military footprint and expansion of its nuclear capability. He then went on to explain that Russia’s identification as an acute threat in the NDS document is attributed to its ongoing actions in Ukraine. He stated that the document also alludes to the collusion between China and Russia to challenge both the US and its allies. Cmde. Singh also brought out that it is for the first time both Russia and China have been listed among the key threats to the US homeland. He further stated that Iran, North Korea and extremist organisations have also been identified as actors who pose threats to the US. The NSS also enumerates the various emerging domains such as cyberspace, space and Artificial intelligence (AI) as influencing factors in the security dynamics of the US. Cmde. Singh brought out that for the first time the NDS has listed grey zone activities by US adversaries as a major threat to its national security. Also, climate change and its effects have been listed among the key challenges to US national security.

He then went on to explain the various approaches envisaged by the NDS document to address these security challenges. The first among these approaches is the concept of integrated deterrence, which Cmde. Singh described as a seamless combination of capabilities across regions, domains, allies and intergovernmental capabilities tailored for specific targets and circumstances. He stated that operationalising a concept such as integrated deterrence would require credible capacity building. While the NDS does not reveal information on the steps taken for capacity building, certain principals have been unveiled for creating an enduring military posture. The document considers that the US and its allies would play a very important role in its defence strategy. The NDS brings out that the US is committed to building a resilient security architecture in the Indo-Pacific region. In order to achieve this the NSS seeks to reinvigorate US-Japan bilateral relations for building a credible force structure in the Indo-Pacific. Also, the NDS brings out that the US aims to deepen its cooperation with Australia through the enhancement of interoperability between their respective militaries. Cmde. Singh brought out that in the NDS, India figures as a very important partner of the US for maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific.

Regarding Taiwan, the NDS unequivocally lays emphasis on the US commitment to protect Taiwan from any external aggression. On Europe, Cmde. Singh stated that the NDS reiterates the US’s commitment to NATO’s collective security and also focuses on improving military posturing for deterring aggression in Eastern Europe. With reference to West Asia the NDS brings out that the US aims to right-size its presence in the region. Cmde. Singh stated that the NDS brings forth a concept known as the “By-With-Through Approach” for describing the US strategy in Iraq and Syria. He explained this concept by stating that under this approach the US’s regional allies would be at the forefront of military operations with the active support of the US military. He also underscored that the NDS reiterates the US intentions to deny nuclear weapons to Iran and carry out military action against Iranian-backed threats in West Asia.  Regarding Africa, the NDS focuses on countering violent extremism and engaging in capacity building with local partners to degrade terrorist organisations in the region.  It also states through collaboration with partners and inter-governmental agencies, the US seeks to counter the activities of Russia and China in Africa. On the Arctic, the NDS states that the US posturing in the region would be calibrated and collaboration with the Arctic allies would be deepened.

Cmde. Singh then went on to briefly present his observations on the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) and the 2022 Missile Defence Review (MDR). He stated that these documents signify that for the first time in history two major powers now pose threats to the US. The document brings forth that the policy of ‘No-First Use’ is only applicable to non-nuclear signatories of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Cmde. Singh then elaborated on the NPR document’s slated plans for the upgradation of the US’s nuclear and conventional strike capabilities. He also explained the plans and capabilities envisaged in the MDR document for defending the US homeland and interests against long-range cruise and hypersonic missiles.

During the Discussion, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy pointed out the absence of Pakistan in the document despite the US President earlier referring to Pakistan as one of the most dangerous countries in the world.  Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, stated that Pivot to Asia, Quad and AUKUS reflects the US’s extensive focus on the ECS, SCS and Indo-Pacific Region in its strategic calculus. He also stated that the recently established Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) and I2U2 as indicative of the US attempts to re-establish its footprints in regions where China has consolidated its presence due to the US absence. Dr. Rajiv Nayan, Senior Research Associate, MP-IDSA brought out that China’s military modernisation and Ukraine Crisis are the key factors that have influenced NDS. He noted that the NDS tacitly implies that nations have the right to aspire for nuclear weapons for safeguarding their territorial integrity taking into consideration the ongoing Ukraine Crisis. He also stated that the NDS has clearly indicated that the US would engage in the rapid modernisation of their nuclear capability.

The session concluded after an insightful exchange of views between scholars during the Q&A session.

Key Takeaways

• The NDS identifies China as a strategic challenger for the US and unequivocally declares that a clash of US interests with China as inevitable.
• Russia has been described as an acute threat due to its ongoing actions in Ukraine.
• Iran, North Korea and extremist organisations have also been identified as actors who pose threats to the US.
• The NDS also enumerates the various emerging domains such as cyberspace, space and Artificial intelligence (AI) as influencing factors in the security dynamics of the US.
• For the first time, the NDS has listed grey zone activities by US adversaries as a major threat to its national security.
• Also, climate change and its effects have been listed among the key challenges to US national security.

Report prepared by Dr. R.Vignesh, Research Analyst, Military Affairs Centre, MP-IDSA.