Event Report

Cmde. Abhay K. Singh (Retd.) spoke on the topic “Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting: Decoding the Joint Statement” at the Monday Morning Webinar held on 21 February 2022. The session was chaired by Dr. Titli Basu and was attended by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, senior scholars & research analysts of MP-IDSA.

Executive Summary

Despite its cautious beginnings in 2017 the Quad dialogues have significantly progressed and this is reflected in the Joint Statement issued at the Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting held in Melbourne on 11 February 2022. The analysis of the Joint Statements of Quad’s Leadership Dialogue and the recent Foreign Ministers Dialogue reveals that there have been subtle differences in the language of the statements issued by the individual nations. But these statements also indicate a growing strategic convergence among the four nations that have been evident from the evolving consensus and expanding areas of cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Region, raising the prospects for the formation of a concrete mandate for the Quad. The areas of cooperation within the Quad have been institutionalised into three core working groups focusing on vaccine production, climate change and emerging technologies. Also, emphasis has been laid on improving cooperation in the field of infrastructure and information technologies. The Joint Statement has stressed on promoting the concept of ASEAN centrality in the Indo-Pacific taking into account the geostrategic significance of the Southeast Asian Nations in the region.

The first page of the statement reiterates the Quad’s commitment towards supporting regional and sub-regional mechanisms on issues of maritime security, cyber security, HADR operations, terrorism and disinformation. The second page of the joint statement focuses extensively on aspects of maritime security for facilitating capacity-building to strengthen Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA), ensuring Freedom of Navigation (FoN), protection of Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOC) and combating Illegal Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) Fishing.  The final page of the statement dwells upon cooperation on the issues of counter-terrorism, combating disinformation and flagging coercive economic policies. The statement has condemned the terrorist attacks in Mumbai and Pathankot which is a considerable diplomatic achievement for India. Concerns regarding Myanmar and North Korea have been expressed in the Joint Statement.  The Quad nations have pledged greater capacity building in the field of clean energy through facilitating exchange programmes and technology transfers. Overall institutionalising Quad 2.0 remains a work in progress but the process is progressively shaping more like an axiom than a conundrum.

Detailed Report

Dr. Titli Basu, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA commenced the session by bringing into perspective heightened diplomatic activity centred around the Indo-Pacific discourse that included the Quad Foreign Minister’s meeting, the unveiling of the US’s Indo-Pacific Strategy by the Biden Administration and European Union’s (EU) Indo-Pacific Forum. Dr. Basu also highlighted the Munich Security Conference held on 18 February 2022 where the Hon’ble External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar had underscored India’s pragmatic approach towards Quad and debunked the Chinese narrative of describing the grouping as an ‘Asian NATO’. Commenting on the Joint Statement made by the Quad Foreign Ministers’ Dr. Basu stated that besides the vaccine partnership there has been extensive focus on aspects like maritime security, maritime domain awareness, counter-terrorism, HADR operations, cybersecurity and countering disinformation which reflects the broad-based security agenda of Quad. She also pointed out the Joint Statement’s focus on regional security issues like Afghanistan, South China Sea (SCS), East China Sea (ECS), Myanmar and North Korea. Citing the joint press interactions of the Foreign Ministers’ Dr. Basu stated that the escalation of tensions in Ukraine and Taiwan have also been put on the diplomatic high table amongst the Quad nations. She also pointed out the Chinese reactions accompanied by the usual rhetoric of calling the Quad a product of Cold War mentality, reflecting China’s resentment towards the grouping. With these opening remarks, Dr. Basu invited Cmde. Abhay Singh to give his presentation.

Cmde. Abhay K. Singh, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA, began his presentation by recalling the cautious beginning of the Quad consultation on 12 November 2017 in Manila during the sidelines of the East Asia Summit which resulted in producing a short and brief joint statement among the four nations devoid of any deeper meaning but gained lots of international attention. Revisiting his assessment of this first Quad meeting Cmde. Singh stated that in the Indo-Pacific geopolitics the relevance of Quad can be considered both as an axiom as well as a conundrum. Taking stock of the geopolitical developments in the Indo-Pacific region between 2007 and 2017, Cmde. Singh stated that the idea of the region as a strategic confluence between the Indian and Pacific Oceans emerged at that time. Here maritime geopolitics became the centrepiece of the strategic narrative concerning the Indo-Pacific. Also taking into account the debate among the strategic community during the 2000s on whether China’s rise can be considered benevolent or malevolent to the Indo-Pacific, Cmde. Singh stated that a majority of prominent views by 2017 characterised China’s rise as malevolent. He also brought out that until then the ASEAN continued to remain divided on its views towards China’s rise, but developments including China’s promulgation of SCS based on the Nine-Dash Line and its non-acceptance of the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) verdict confirmed China’s aggressive approach in the region and its disdain for a rules-based international order. Cmde. Singh stated that as a result of this, the interregnum between the first and second Quad consultation signified the growing strategic convergence between the four nations of the Quad.

Reiterating his view on the Quad having elements of both Axiom and Conundrum, Cmde. Singh stated that aspects like value based partnership for promoting a rules based order and a shared vision for ‘Free and Open’ Indo-Pacific focusing on connectivity and regional balance denotes axiom. At the same time elements of Conundrum are reflected by the divergent interests among the Quad nations, the perception of the grouping by some observers as Cold-War Redux to counter China and the lack of a framework that contributed to the uncertainty of the viability of the Quad. Inferring from the press statements given by the Quad nations after their first meeting in 2017, Cmde. Singh stated that the absence of Freedom of Navigation (FoN) and overflight, respect for international law and maritime security from India’s statements reflected its differing take on the Quad. On the other hand, Japan’s press statement did not refer to connectivity which was mentioned by the other nations. He pointed out while aspects like free and open Indo-Pacific, nuclear proliferation, rules-based order and terrorism were jointly addressed by all four nations, the language of their statements on these topics differed due to which the meeting remained inconclusive in achieving a common mandate. Taking note of the Joint Statement from the next Quad meeting that took place June 2018, Cmde. Singh stated it was notable for its inclusion of ASEAN centrality in the Indo-Pacific discourse and this was also reflected by the Hon’ble Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s address at the Shangri-La Dialogue. Inferring from the successive joint statements, Cmde. Singh stated that it became clear the recurring focal points on development, connectivity, good governance, regional security, non-proliferation, shared democratic value and maritime cooperation have become the key features in the Quad meetings.  He highlighted that despite the convergence of Quad nations in these broad-based areas, India significantly differed in its language to denote its advocacy for a FoN, rules-based order and partnership with other nations in the region leading to differing interpretations on India’s expectations from the Quad.

Cmde. Singh brought out that despite the subtle differences in the language of the statements, the concerns began to converge reflecting the evolving consensus and expanding cooperation between the Quad nations leading to a common mandate taking shape. Assessing the first Joint Statement given by the Quad nations after their virtual summit on 12 March 2021, he stated that it denoted a concrete resolve of the Quad nations towards aspects like rules-based order, FoN, promotion of democratic values, countering coercion and the ASEAN centrality in the Indo-Pacific. Cmde. Singh underscored that the area of cooperation became institutionalised into three core working groups on vaccine production, climate change and emerging technologies. The subsequent in-person meeting among the Quad leaders held on 24 September 2021 highlighted the core values based upon which the Quad was structured and reviewed the progress from the previous meetings especially in the areas of infrastructure partnership and information technology most notably the inclusion of Quad into Blue Dot Network which was earlier an exclusive initiative in cyberspace between the U.S, Japan and Australia. Cmde. Singh stated that it is important to note that the U.S Indo-Pacific Strategy harmonises with the various stakeholders of the region like India, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, United Kingdom and France along with regional organisations like ASEAN and EU.

Decoding the comprehensive Joint Statement, Cmde. Singh analysed the first page of the statement which reiterated Quad’s commitment to support not only regional mechanisms but also the sub-regional mechanisms like Mekong-Ganga Cooperation (MGC) on issues pertaining to maritime security, HADR operations, cyber security, disinformation and terrorism. Assessing the second page of the statement Cmde. Singh pointed out that there has been extensive focus on the maritime domain as the Quad members have pledged to deepen their engagement in capacity-building and technical assistance to strengthen Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA), ensuring FoN, protection of Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOC) and combating Illegal Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing. Deciphering the third page Cmde. Singh brought out that Quad’s commitment to counter-terrorism has been underscored through the denouncement of the use of terrorist proxies for cross-border infiltration through the provision of safe havens and financial support. Also, the statement issued condemnations of the Mumbai and Pathankot terrorist attacks by reaffirming Quad’s support to UN Security Resolution 2593 that demanded the Afghan territory not be used for terrorism related activities. Cmde. Singh highlighted that the statement also conveyed cooperation in the cyber-security domain like countering disinformation, addressing the threat of ransomware and resolution to promote international peace and stability in cyberspace.  Bringing out other key resolutions of the joint statement, Cmde. Singh noted the Quad’s flagging of coercive economic policies and practices in the region.

Cmde. Singh pointed out that the statement sets out an agenda for future activities of Quad which includes the hosting of the Indo-Pacific Clean Energy Supply Chain Forum by Australia in mid-2022. Also, the U.S has pledged to promote exchange programmes for capacity building in the core focus areas of Quad and explore the feasibility of a track 1.5 dialogue between strategic thinkers of the four nations.  He also stated that through the joint statement the Quad has expressed grave concerns regarding Myanmar and North Korea. Summarising his presentation Cmde. Singh stated that institutionalising Quad 2.0 remains a work in progress but the process is progressively shaping more like an axiom than a conundrum.

During the panel discussion, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy traced the origins of the Quad back to when the first maritime security cooperation between India and the U.S. also known as the Kicklighter proposals took place during his tenure as the Deputy Secretary of Americas in 1992. He stated all the major developments of the next three decades leading up to the Quad’s current status including the Malabar Naval Exercise had their origins in the Kicklighter proposals. Describing the 2004 tsunami as essentially a cataclysmic maritime event that brought India, the U.S., Japan and Australia together for engaging in coordinated HADR operations in the region, the Director General attributed the foundation of Quad 1.0 to a maritime construct that retained its bilateral and trilateral significance even after the tsunami. This factor influenced the bilateral Malabar Exercise between India and the US which subsequently went on to include Japan in 2015 during the tenure of the Director General as the Indian Ambassador to Japan and subsequently, Australia also acquired the same traction by 2021. Pointing out to the differences between the evolution of Dialogue between Foreign Ministers and Leaders of the Quad, the Director General noted that the Leadership Dialogue has already issued two joint statements in March and September 2021, but on the other hand the Foreign Ministers Dialogue have so far avoided Joint Statements and instead opted for country specific statements. Henceforth, the Director General pointed out the fact that this is the first Joint Statement that has been issued at the Foreign Ministers level and referred to this as an indicator of considerable progress in the Quad.

The Director General stated that the previous Joint Statements issued at the leadership level have indicated a higher level of cooperation between the Quad nations attributed to the COVID pandemic and the development in the technological domain being the driving force behind their agenda. On the other hand, the Joint Statement issued at the Foreign Minister level laid focus on the terrorist attacks in Mumbai and Pathankot which was not mentioned at the leadership level that indicates considerable progress achieved by India and the Director General indicated the likelihood of its incorporation in the upcoming Joint Statement issued by the Quad Leaders. Also, he pointed out the newer element of the Joint Statement such as inclusion of Myanmar, Afghanistan, North Korea and countering disinformation. The Director General noted that extensive emphasis on countering disinformation is a subtle hint to China and Russia for their alleged use of social media for manipulation. He stated although the Quad cannot be considered as an “Asian Nato”, the nations within the Quad have bilateral defence partnerships with each other that enable them to further elevate their existing cooperation into a military grouping.

Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, stated that the higher convergences within the Quad that have been taking place over the last nine years are coinciding with the higher belligerence that is being exhibited by China. He stated although there is no direct correlation between the Malabar Exercise and the Quad, this projects a subtle hint of future military alliance. Touching upon the ASEAN centrality, the Deputy Director General pointed out the fact that the regional grouping has been so far reluctant to give any critical statement against China and questioned ASEAN’s support of the Quad. Brig. Satyavrat Pagay, Senior Fellow, MP-IDSA enumerated dichotomies that the Quad creates for India in maintaining its strategic autonomy citing India’s neutral stand in the ongoing Ukraine Crisis, the acquisition of S-400 missiles from Russia and the military coup in Myanmar.

During the Q&A session responding to the Director General’s comments, Cmde. Singh stated that as the Foreign Ministers’ have met for the first time since the Quad summit the Joint Statement is likely to become a regular feature in all the future high level meetings taking place in the Quad. He stated although institution building in diplomatic engagement takes considerable time, the Quad has undergone this phase which will lead to greater institutionalisation of the grouping. Responding to the question posed by the Deputy Director General on ASEAN centrality, Cmde. Singh stated that every nation within the Quad has been individually engaging with the ASEAN members in order to win their confidence like India’s ‘Act East Policy’. Overall Quad must be able to persuade the ASEAN nations to partake in Quad’s vision for the Indo-Pacific region. Responding to another question on why Quad is being considered as a value based alignment rather than a security alliance, Cmde. Singh explained that a security alliance is identified by the alignment of interests supported by a treaty. But on the other hand, alignments are agreements based on good faith between nations. Responding to Brig. Pagay’s question on strategic autonomy, he stated that in international relations autonomy of the sovereign states is always constrained by existing global practices and groupings due to which no nation can claim to enjoy complete strategic autonomy. In case of India’s relationship with Russia, it has been evolving distinctly since the signing of Indo-Soviet Treaty of 1971 and shall not diminish due to India’s association with the Quad. Responding to Col. Chadha’s question regarding China’s disdain towards the concept of Indo-Pacific, Cmde. Singh stated that judging from the statements of the Chinese Government and academia, China considers Quad and Indo-Pacific as two sides of the same coin which is designed for containing its influence in the region.  

Key Takeaways

• The Joint Statement indicates growing strategic convergence among the four nations that has been evident from the evolving consensus and expanding areas of cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Region.
• The Joint Statement has stressed on promoting the concept of ASEAN centrality in the Indo-Pacific taking into account the geostrategic significance of the Southeast Asian Nations in the region.
• Issues of maritime security in the Indo-Pacific have been extensively covered in the Joint Statement.
• The Quad nations have pledged for greater cooperation in countering disinformation.
• Terrorism is a key issue that will become a regular feature in the future Joint Statements of all high level Quad meetings.

Report prepared by Dr R. Vignesh, Research Analyst, Military Affairs Centre, MP-IDSA