The run-up to the Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to India has been an opportunity for IDSA to interact with eminent experts about Russia’s new domestic and foreign policy initiatives and, on this occasion, Mr. Vladimir Skosyrev1 addressed an informed audience on the subject of the current Russian administration’s foreign policy initiatives. His presentation at IDSA primarily focussed on the new Russia-NATO detente, Russia’s role in Afghanistan, the American ‘reset’ policy towards Russia, the emphasis on ‘modernization alliances’, Russia’s strengthening of relationship with China, and finally on the country’s strong traditional relationship with India along with the public perception which favoured continuation of ties with India. Wing Commander V. Krishnappa of IDSA inaugurated the session by welcoming Mr. Skosyrev and lauding his long standing association and journalistic interest in India.

Russia-NATO

At the very outset Mr. Skosyrev proclaimed the improvement of Russia’s ties with NATO at the Lisbon summit as a positive development, an event which could change the very dynamics of Russia’s relationship with the Western world. For the first time Russia and NATO had put down in writing that they no longer posed a mutual threat and called for a ‘fresh start’ to resolve their differences. However, what was of even more significance and probably heralded the beginning of a new era was an agreement to cooperate on a ballistic missile defence system. Mr. Skosyrev also highlighted and praised the tremendous diplomatic effort on both sides to reach an amicable agreement since this was the first time the Russia-NATO council had been convened post the Russia-Georgia conflict of 2008. That conflict had strained Russia’s relationship with NATO and the reconvening of the Council was an indication of both sides viewing each other as potential allies.

Mr. Skosyrev supported the Russian President’s decision to join the alliance’s planned missile defence shield as an equal and full partner. He was of the view that talks should be universal and all encompassing in nature. Any attempt to marginalize or sidestep Russia would automatically result in Russia walking away from cooperating in the development of the missile system.

The historic Lisbon summit was also an indication of Russia’s willingness to find common ground with NATO on issues of mutual concern. Laying the ground work to cooperate on anti-narcotics, piracy, terrorism and Afghanistan highlighted the unprecedented level of convergence of interests and cooperation between the two erstwhile foes.

The fact that major European countries like Germany, France and Italy and also the United States had welcomed the new developments with open hands indicated the possibility of the beginning of a long term strategic partnership. Russia and NATO should aim to create a common space of peace, security and stability in the region. There has also been an improvement in the image of Russia amongst the domestic audience of the European countries (8% improvement in Germany and France, and 12% in Poland). However, Mr. Skosyrev warned that the partnership will have to soon come up with concrete proposals to give credibility to the new bonhomie.

Domestic Audience

With elections due in 2010, the biggest hurdle which the Russian President faces will be his ability to sell the plan to his domestic audience, a significant percentage of whom still look upon NATO with deep scepticism and distrust. There is a strong division in Russia about the course of the foreign policy which the country should follow. One group favours fostering of strong relationship with NATO, since Russia and NATO share more concerns today (Afghanistan, proliferation of WMD, terrorist networks, etc.) than at any other point in their history. The second group advocates a cautious approach towards NATO and an improvement in ties through gradual confidence building measures including joint decision making in critical areas of concern. And then there is a group which critically views NATO as an organization which aims to weaken the power of Russia. In their arguments, they often refer to the remarks of Brezensky (advisor to former American President Carter) who had called for Russia to be dismembered. They look upon NATO as the world’s policemen and from whom Russia will have no option but to take orders.

Recent disclosures through Wiki-leaks have further emboldened this group. The fact that the US and NATO had plans to defend the Baltic States from Russia’s influence in the aftermath of the Georgian crisis is vindication of their belief in NATO’s hidden agenda. It has given them much needed ammunition through which they can stir patriotic feelings of the general public.

Five Key Mechanisms to strengthen the bond:
a) Multilateral and multi-tiered confidence building measures.
b) Emphasis on Conventional Armed Forces treaty.
c) Russia’s full participation in the missile defence development.
d) Russia-US cooperation outside Europe as well.
e) Increased cooperation in Afghanistan and strengthening of regional institutions to fill the vacuum once NATO troops withdraw.

Modernization Alliances

Russia’s influence in global affairs today is restricted on account of its lack of global economic competitiveness. Its economy is still primarily a resource based one and therefore highly dependent on the prices of commodities like oil, gas and metals. Therefore, modernization of the economy is the primary domestic objective of Russia.

President, Dmitri A. Medvedev has chalked out a diversification plan that would enable the economy to ride out future economic crises and has fostered enhanced technological cooperation with the developed world, especially ‘modernization alliances’ with the United States and the European Union. The development of a robust national innovation system and a knowledge based economy with the help of the world’s smartest money has been accorded top priority in economic planning.

Modernization will never see the light of the day unless there is active participation of the technologically developed Western world. The first step in this direction of bringing and accommodating Russia closer to the West was initiated by President Obama in his ‘reset’ policy and it has continued through the START treaty and Russia’s apology to Poland for the Kaytn massacre.2 However, the recent detente is very fragile and a delay in ratifying the START treaty by the United States and reports of re-armament of Georgia by NATO can act as big dampeners in this new found cooperation.

Russia-China

Russia’s growing relationship with China was discussed in detail. Mr. Skosyrev insisted that the relationship between the two giants can be described as cordial and the two states had cooperated with each other in various international organizations. The border issue had been finally resolved and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was gradually being developed into an effective body to combat terrorism in the region. Russia and China had signed massive energy deals and the diversification of Russia’s energy supplies from Europe would only help the two countries to further strengthen their relationship. The opening of the new Daqing pipeline is testimony of the levels of maturity with which Russia and China look at their partnership.

However, there are problems that may act as impediments in the future. There is a perception amongst many in the elite that Russia has become a raw material appendage to China. Many states in Russia’s far eastern region are entirely dependent on China and Chinese influence is much more prominent in these states than Russian influence. Consequently residual fears about China still exist.

Russia-India

Russia and India share a traditional strategic bond and there is convergence and near unanimity of their views on practically all issues of global concern. Shared values and common interests mark the ties between the two states. One of the key driving forces for the relationship to achieve its next level would be enhanced cooperation in high technology. The recent agreements on nuclear power and reactors, cooperation in the development of fifth generation fighter jets, and co-development and production of multi-role transport aircraft and Brahmos missiles was a clear indication that the perceived chill in their relationship was mere hearsay. However, there is a need to diversify the relationship. Given Russia’s energy resources and India’s technological skills, energy is an important sector that the two countries can work closely on. In fact, Mr. Skosyrev went on to declare that India is the only true and real friend of Russia, a friendship that has withstood the test of time.

Wg. Cdr. Krishnappa concluded by commending Mr. Skosyrev’s extremely insightful presentation on the dynamics of the foreign policy of Russia and ended on the note that India was looking forward to President Medvedev’s visit.

Report prepared by Rajorshi Roy, Research Assistant, IDSA

• 1. Mr. Vladimir Skosyrev is the Observer of “Nezavisimaya Gazeta” of Moscow and an Indophile having served as a correspondent of ‘Izvestia’ in India from 1969-74. He has also authored a couple of books on India.
• 2. During the Second World War, in 1940, Soviet troops had invaded Poland. At that time Stalin had ordered the slaying of some of the senior most military officials of Poland. Refusal of Russia to accept culpability had strained relations between Russia and Poland. In April 2010, the Russian Parliament formally apologized for the massacre.