Welcoming Dr. Al Faraj, Dr. Arvind Gupta, LBSC noted that the Gulf region of vital strategic interest to India. Historically, India has had close relations with the countries of the Gulf region buttressed by robust people-to-people contacts. He pointed out that the trajectory of current domestic political developments linked with the aspirations of the people was very uncertain. In this regard, he welcomed Dr. Al Faraj to give his perspectives on the developing situation.

Dr. Al Faraj opened his remarks by pointing out that the national component in the demographic mix of GCC countries was miniscule. He pointed to the presence of people belonging to more than 200 nationalities in the GCC countries. As a result, whatever happens in the region will have international significance. The presence of so many different nationalities also complicates issues of disaster management in the case of any man-made or natural eventuality. The fact that expatriates working in the Gulf are not that well-educated complicates the situation further.

The worst-case scenario for his country and the region according to him was the possibility of large-scale displacement or disruption as a result of developments linked to the Iranian nuclear programme or the socio-political changes sweeping across the region. On the latter aspect, he noted the socio-political instability associated with the “so-called Arab Spring” in countries like Yemen and Egypt, as also the extant instabilities in countries like Iraq and Sudan.

On Iran, he stated that the biggest problem associated with its nuclear programme was environmental in nature. In this regard he pointed out that some of the areas in Iran housing nuclear facilities are in seismically active zones. Geographically, the direction of currents in the Gulf is counter-clockwise while wind direction is on the east-west and north-south axis. Any negative geographical or man-made development associated with Bandar Abbas or Bushehr will affect the GCC countries like Kuwait badly.

On Iran’s nuclear programme specifically, Dr. Al Faraj expressed the apprehensions of countries of the GCC on account that Iran is wiling to neither acknowledge the gravity of the situation nor discuss the issue with GCC countries in a transparent manner. This creates difficulties in crises situations due to lack of proper communication channels. However, the GCC countries have been taking steps to counter Iran. Given the quantitative edge that Iran possesses in terms of its population size and geographical spread, GCC countries have invested in improving their qualitative edge technologically and militarily. This is especially important in the context of gradual retreat of the United States from the region. In this context, he identified Turkey, Iran and Israel as the major powers that could fill the vacuum, apart from major powers with important stakes in the region like India.

He reminded the audience of the April 2011 statement by the Saudi Foreign Minister to the effect that the countries of the region will definitely do everything to counter the Iranian nuclear weapon capability. On US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s remarks about the possibility of US nuclear umbrella being extended to the region in the eventuality of Iran going nuclear, Dr. Al Faraj stated that the countries of the region could even approach other nuclear powers in the region. He stated that they will not be averse even to an Israeli nuclear umbrella given that the Israelis share the same concerns regarding the Iranians. In this context, he noted that there was not just common but affinity of interests with Israel regarding the Iranian nuclear programme.

Dr Al Faraj welcomed a possible Indian role in finding a solution to the Iranian nuclear issue given that India has friendly ties with Tehran as also with all the GCC countries. He stated that India was even better placed than Turkey to play such a role given the high respect it commands in the region, its moral power buttressed by its strategic restraint, and its growing capabilities. As a first step, India could tell Iran to ‘cool down’ matters regarding its nuclear issue so that discussions could take place to find a solution. In this context, he criticised the P5+1 grouping as inadequate in finding a solution. Dr. Al Faraj also noted that a possible strategic trade-off for India if it plays a more constructive role on the Iranian nuclear issue was a possible Saudi role in tempering Pakistani behaviour in areas of concern towards India. Continuing on the question of Pakistan, Dr. Al Faraj stated that GCC counties will not take Pakistani help in countering a nuclear Iran given that Pakistan or its agencies actively participated in the Iranian nuclear quest.

Dr. Al Faraj mentioned that the GCC countries were apprehensive about a possible Iranian bridgehead to the Mediterranean which could divide the Arab-speaking Sunni world with the non-Arab speaking Sunni world. He noted that the situation in the region as it exists currently bears many similarities with the developments that were prevalent in 1981, the year that GCC came into being. When GCC was formed as a direct response to the Iranian revolution, the US was also engaged in Afghanistan, Egypt was outside the Arab fold on account of the 1979 peace treaty with Israel, among other pertinent factors. GCC therefore was formed as a defensive mechanism to defend the interests of Gulf countries.

Dr. Al Faraj stated that GCC countries continue to act united in protecting their interests. He specifically pointed to the GCC moves with regard to the recent developments in Bahrain when Saudi Arabia sent in its army, Kuwait its naval personnel and the Emirates its police personnel among other countries to help manage the situation. Recent GCC moves to include Jordan and Morocco in the workings of the grouping also point to efforts to expand the range of options available to the group. The GCC countries are also in the process of being prepared to face such an eventuality if the possibility of pre-empting a nuclear Iran fails. In this context, he pointed to the increased emphasis on proper road connectivity to assist in disaster management, investing in their armed forces capabilities, among other pertinent measures. He asserted that GCC countries will never allow themselves to be subjected to nuclear blackmail by Iran.

Report prepared by S. Samuel C. Rajiv, Associate Fellow, IDSA