The Monday morning meeting on “Growing Political Uncertainty in Sri Lanka: An Analysis” was held on 11 July 2022 at 10 AM in the Auditorium. Associate Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), Dr. Gulbin Sultana spoke on the subject and elaborated on the significance and implications of the crisis in Sri Lanka. The session was chaired by Dr. Ashok K. Behuria, Co-ordinator & Senior Fellow, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA. Director-General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy and Deputy Director-General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) shared their views.

Executive Summary

Sri Lanka has been passing through a serious political crisis which was preceded by a severe economic crisis in the country. The political uncertainty in the island nation has created a political uncertainty which is not going to end anytime soon, given the disagreements in the political leadership about various matters, like the formation of an interim government, holding fresh elections, and the demand of the protestors for a new political system in the country by abolishing the existing system of executive presidency. Although President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has finally yielded and hinted that he might resign, that is unlikely going to end the protests. The economic crisis continues and with least external support, the leadership of the country are finding it hard to manage the crisis. A lot will depend on the possible deal with the IMF. The deal however, will require a lot of homework and restructuring of the debt, change in some economic policies, etc.

Detailed Report

Dr. Ashok Kumar Behuria, the Chair, in his initial remarks said that the political crisis in Sri Lanka seemed inevitable as the crisis has been building up and deteriorating from 2016 onwards. Dr. Behuria said that the response to the intensifying economic crisis from the government was lackadaisical. Even the much needed loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was delayed. Not only did the Rajapaksa brothers act very late, the measures taken by them were not enough and were ineffective in mitigating the crisis. The country has external debt upto US$35 billion. Dr. Behuria said that since the protests are popular and have mass support, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa may have to resign under pressure. He also pointed out that the developments in Sri Lanka also underline the fact that a government that has come to power with popular vote may lose that popular support soon if it is unable to deliver and meet the expectations of the people.

Dr. Gulbin Sultana:  Dr. Gulbin Sultan started by saying that 9 July was a historical day in the history of modern Sri Lanka. The anti-government protests in the island country, also known as ‘Aragalaya’ locally, had reached their climax by the occupation of the Presidential Palace. She said that it is all likely, as stated by some government officials, that the protests have succeeded in forcing the Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign and ending the infamous Rajapaksa rule in the country. Dr. Gulbin raised four points in the wake of the latest developments in Sri Lanka: 1) Will the resignation of the President end the political instability?; 2) Will it end the protests?; 3) If the President and the Prime Minister resign, what will happen to the much needed IMF package that is being negotiated by a team led by Prime Minister Ranil Wikramasinghe?; and 4) What impact will the developments have on India’s interests in the country?

Dr. Gulbin said that the resignation of the president is not going to end the popular protests led by the people. On 9 July, all political leaders met in the parliament to decide the next course of action. Four decisions were taken in the meeting: 1) The President and the Prime Minister (PM) should resign immediately; 2) the parliament should be reconvened in 7 days to appoint acting President; 3) appointment of an all-party government under a new Prime Minister commanding majority in the parliament; and 4) announcing fresh elections within short period of time.

Appointing a new president and calling fresh elections are going to be contentious issues, Dr. Gulbin stated. Earlier also, when the opposition parties were demanding resignation of then PM Mahindra Rajapaksa, they could not unite or create consensus for a new prime ministerial candidate. She said that even now the opposition parties are not united. She also pointed out that even if the President resigns and despite some defections from the ruling party, Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) still enjoys the majority. The Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), the main opposition party has only 58 members. The problem is that when it comes to voting for passing bills or making laws, cross voting is quite likely, like in the past.  

Dr. Gulbin said that though the protesters have been able to force the president to resign, they have more demands. One of the demands is to change the existing political system in the country on which the people have lost their trust. Additionally, they demand that after the formation of an interim government, there should be a popular council through which the representatives of the protestors will remain in touch with the new government. Dr. Gulbin said that this and other demands are going to be tough as the IMF has already made it clear that the country needs to take some strong measures and not to give any freebies. What it makes more difficult is that the protestors are not ready to trust the opposition leaders well.  

The countries that were expected to help Sri Lanka like the US, Japan and others have conditioned their major financial assistance with the agreement with the IMF, Dr. Gulbin added. Though some political parties, like SLPP and SJB, are saying that they have plans ready to deal with the economic crisis, it is not only a matter of having plans: Much of it will depend on how other countries look at the crisis and whether they are ready to step in for help.

Dr. Gulbin said that India’s approach has been cautious during all this. In its statement, New Delhi stated that the country stands with the democratic right of people to protest. India has also been providing assistance for the last four months and the two countries have signed many agreements and MoUs on projects which were delayed for many years. However, when these agreements/MoUs were being signed, many political parties, including the main opposition party were critical of these deals for various reasons. Dr. Gulbin said that in the wake of the crisis, there are some doubts whether any new government in Sri Lanka would continue those agreements/projects. She concluded by saying that India should not stop its assistance as it can create some goodwill among the sections that are critical of India’s role. She ended by saying that India should carefully pursue its national interests.

Discussion

The Director General, Ambassador (R) Sujan R. Chinoy, in his remarks, said that Sri Lanka needs food, fuel, pharma and faith to come out of the crisis. While the Lankans have abundance of faith, the world and India in particular will have to come forth in case of the former three. Ambassador Chinoy pointed out that the crisis goes beyond the ‘China factor’. He said that the Chinese have contributed to the crisis but mainly the problem lies on the Sri Lankan side. If China is such a critical factor then there are a number of countries where China is involved, they should be falling into a similar crisis which is not the case. Ambassador Chinoy said that in this type of crisis China is very unlikely to step in any optical manner. China is likely to come forth to do some restructuring but it is unlikely going to be present physically or materially as it does not want to be castigated as ‘whipping boy’, as it is already accused of being one in some parts of the world.

Ambassador Chinoy said that India’s role is going to be crucial for providing food, fuel, and pharma to Sri Lanka. He also pointed out that it is strange that the US was going to spend $54 billion as arms assistance to Ukraine in 2022-2023 to help the latter fight against Russia where Kyiv is still unlikely to get any major success; it is not ready to help Sri Lanka by providing much less: $34 billion.

With regard to the possibility of Sri Lankan refugees coming to India, mainly Tamil refugees, Ambassador Chinoy said that though foreign minister S. Jaishankar has said that so far there is no indication but that does not rule out the possibility of them ending up in India as a large number of people of Tamil origin, are having base on the both sides. He also said that the impact of Tamil Nadu politics needs to be analysed.  

Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) said that it is strange that a promising economy in the recent past and seen as a tourist hub, in five-six years’ time has collapsed. He said that the people want a new political system. Does that mean that they want a system where a popular front (led by the people) should be able to interact with the government? Does that mean it will overcrowd the democratic government? He further stated that imposing schemes like organic farming in a dictatorial style without proper data and without paying any heed to professional advice seemed to have led to unwanted consequences.

Cmde. Abhay Singh (Retd.) said that in general it is seen that any conflict, political or otherwise, accentuates social/ethnic fault lines. In Sri Lanka, what is seen as of now is that the participation in the protests has been inclusive. However, the question is that, in case of scarcity of resources and essential commodities, how long will this unity in the protest survive? This will become important when people will start preferring micro interests over the macro ones when they will prefer families, clans, communities, etc.

Dr. Smruti S. Pattnaik raised the issue of whether the violence erupted during the peaceful protests were organised and supported by some political parties. She said that there were speculations that SJB had some role in the protests. This is important given the fact that in some incidents some members of some political parties were involved. She said that given all this, the role of some political forces in giving direction to the protests cannot be ruled out entirely. Dr Smruti said that with regard to the deal with the IMF that is being negotiated, it is unlikely to get approved by the international financial body unless there is debt restructuring.  Responding to Dr. Smruti’s query on SJB’s involvement in the violence on 9 July, Dr. Gulbin said that speculations are rife in Sri Lanka about the involvement of the Frontline Socialist Party, a breakaway faction of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) in organising the violence.

The report has been prepared by Dr. Nazir Ahmad Mir, Research Assistant, MP-IDSA.