Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha, Centre Coordinator, Non-Traditional Security Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses spoke on the topic “25 Years of the Ganga Treaty: What Lies Ahead?” at MP-IDSA’s regular Monday Morning Webinar held on 10 January 2022. Dr. Smruti S. Pattanaik, Research Fellow, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA, chaired the webinar. Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, scholars and members of the Institute attended the webinar.

Executive Summary

The Ganga Water Treaty between India and Bangladesh has come a long way since its signing in 1996. The treaty is for a period of 30 years and is due for renewal in 2026. With the impact of climate change on water resources and the emerging inter and intra-state water sharing challenges, it would be important for both countries to work towards the future contours of the Ganga Treaty. The next five years, therefore, will be crucial.

Detailed Report

Dr. Smruti S. Pattanaik introduced the topic and highlighted the importance of the Ganga Treaty that was signed on 12 December 1996. She mentioned that on both sides there exist several concerns pertaining to the availability and flow of the Ganga water and when the Treaty comes up for renewal, several challenges will have to be overcome given the fact that water sharing is highly political, emotive and divisive.

Dr. Sinha highlighted 1996 as a landmark year, which he described as a ‘Hydrological Moment’.  1996 not only saw the signing of the Ganga Treaty but also the Mahakali Treaty with Nepal which was signed in February 1996. Further touching upon the political developments that led to the signing of the Ganga Treaty, Dr. Sinha, mentioned that Sheikh Hasina, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, who came to power in June 1996 played an important leadership role. He recalled that in a joint statement, soon after signing the treaty in New Delhi, Hasina very wisely and carefully called it “The Ganga Treaty” rather than the anglicised Ganges, or the Padma, as the river is known in Bangladesh. The 1996 Ganga Treaty he explained was a culmination of several water sharing developments that took place since the Liberation of Bangladesh in 1971.  These include the 1977-1982 agreement and several other one year MOU’s on water-sharing between the two countries. Dr. Sinha informed that soon after Bangladesh’s independence, the Joint River Commission was established in 1972 to map and survey the ‘common rivers’ between India and Bangladesh.

With this brief historical narration, Dr. Sinha then discussed the transboundary river dynamics. First, he mentioned that transboundary rivers establish a complex network of environmental, social, economic and security interdependencies. Second, rivers crisscrossing boundaries in South Asia brings in an interesting politico-diplomatic framework. Rivers can act as a catalyst for cooperation between states as well as become a source of competition and rivalry. What, therefore, emerges, is a hydro-politico-security complex, in which a distinct hydro-behaviour of states can be determined along with upstream-downstream contestations. He observed that South Asia is a ‘riverine neighborhood’ where predictability and availability of water in the rivers will be challenged by demands and pressures and also by the knowns and unknowns of climate change.

On the specifics of the Ganga Treaty, Dr. Sinha mentioned that the Farakka Barrage has always created fear and apprehension in the minds of the people of Bangladesh, because of the water that has been diverted to Hooghly in the maintenance of Calcutta port. He asserted that the entire debate on Farakka in the 1960’s between India and East Pakistan was based on strong opposition from Islamabad on ‘not’ having the Farakka Barrage. But India’s hydrocracy prevailed and the Farakka Barrage was commissioned in 1975. Interestingly, Dr. Sinha captured the Lok Sabha debate soon after the Treaty was signed and highlighted some of the statements from Members of Parliament present during the discussion in particular, Uma Bharti, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Priya Ranjan Dasmunsi. Even Sheikh Hasina’s government in Bangladesh, as Dr. Sinha explained, had to face strong criticism on the water sharing mechanism.

Briefly commenting on the political setup in India during the signing of the Ganga Treaty, Dr. Sinha mentioned that the year 1996 saw an uneasy coalition government which wanted to leave a legacy especially in neighbourhood diplomacy. The Ganga Treaty like the 1977 agreement was signed by a non-Congress government. Dr. Sinha highlighted the role of India’s ‘Left Parties’ and the important role played by Jyoti Basu, the Chief Minister of West Bengal. Sheikh Hasina built good personal rapport with Jyoti Basu keeping in mind the importance of West Bengal. She also, unlike the previous regimes in Bangladesh, did not internationalise the issue of Ganga waters despite domestic pressures.

Looking ahead, Dr. Sinha mentioned that the Indian states of U.P. and Bihar will have to be factored in the effective utilization of Ganga water. He mentioned that India has done its ‘utmost’ to maintain the flow of water. He highlighted the basic principles of the Ganga Water Treaty, which has been adhered to the best possible extent despite several contrary noises in Bangladesh. These include: 1. Equitable; 2. Fairness and 3. No Harm. He mentioned that for the future course of this treaty ‘dialogue and negotiations’ would remain crucial and critical. Further, the mechanisms and institutions that exist between India and Bangladesh on water sharing require updating. Transparency, trust and accountability remains important in terms of data exchange and information sharing on available water resources. Dr. Sinha suggested that Indian diplomats posted in the neighbourhood need to be trained in hydro-diplomacy and be familiarised with technical knowledge on hydrology. Finally, the speaker concluded by highlighting that Bangladesh needs ‘the Ganga Barrage’ that could be optimised to operate with the ‘Farakka Barrage’. This will not only restore the environment in the southern part of Bangladesh but would also provide water in dry season for irrigation in eastern India and central Bangladesh.

Questions and Comments

Following this extensive talk, Dr. Pattanaik made her remarks and invited Director General, MP-IDSA, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy to make his comments. The floor was later opened for the panelists and participants for their comments and questions.

Ambassador Chinoy thanked the speaker and pointed out that water is not only the root cause of many disputes between states, but also similar disputes are witnessed domestically as well. Citing the example of the Krishna water dispute between Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, Ambassador Chinoy mentioned that such complex water-related issues are equally difficult to deal with internally. Second, he mentioned that water-related issues between states become even more complex when rivers enter and re-enter the territories of states. Third, he mentioned that the water disputes are largely related to its sharing. He also pointed out that water can be used as a weapon and cited the 2004 Parechu incident. He took the opportunity to state China’s reluctance on sharing hydrological data with India that led to downstream dangers on the Sutlej river when the huge water accumulated in the lake Parechu suddenly burst through.  

Capt. Anurag Bisen mentioned that China does not have any water treaty with lower riparian countries as compared to India and asked the speaker as to why India did not sign the Convention on the Law of Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses. He also asked Dr. Sinha to comment on India’s so-called generosity in signing water-sharing agreements with lower riparian countries.

Col. (Dr) Divakaran Padma Kumar Pillay (Retd.) in his remarks also commented on India’s generous approach in water-sharing agreements with lower riparian states. Col. Pillay asked the Speaker to comment on such an approach. 

Dr. Nihar K Nayak in his remarks mentioned that 47 per cent of water to the Ganges comes from Nepal during the non-lean period and simultaneously during the lean period (i.e. during dry season) 75 per cent of the water flow in the Ganges comes from Nepal. He asked the speaker, “Should India involve Nepal in the future Ganga Water Treaty that is going to be renewed in 2026”? 

Mr. Bipandeep Sharma asked the speaker to comment on the IPCC sixth assessment report that highlights the impact of climate change on the flow of the water in the Ganges River in the near future. He also asked the speaker to comment on the issue of ‘Climate Refugees’ that may emerge for Bangladesh as a result of drought and flooding (according to the IPCC 6th Assessment Report).

Dr. Sinha gave a detailed explanation to the comments and questions raised by the panelists and the participants.

Report prepared by Bipandeep Sharma, Research Analyst, Non-Traditional Security Centre, MP-IDSA, New Delhi.