October 18, 2021

In the Monday Morning Webinar on October 18, 2021, Ms. Ruchita Beri, Senior Research Associate and Coordinator Africa, Latin America, Caribbean and United Nations Centre, MP-IDSA spoke on the topic “Unpacking the Rise of Terrorism in Mozambique”.  Dr. Lakshmi Priya moderated the session. The webinar was attended by Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, and scholars of the institute.

Executive Summary

The webinar drew attention to the crisis unfolding in Mozambique and underscored its importance and implications for India and the International Community at large. It was identified that the rise of terrorism was due to ideological as well as tribal, economic and social factors. The speaker underscored that the manifestation of terrorism, availability of natural resources, response of the Mozambican government and the organised crime network in the province were among the four major factors for the rise in concern on the crisis in Mozambique. Speaker highlighted the close ties shared between India and Mozambique; and suggested likely avenues of engagement for India to aid Mozambique in its crisis.

Detailed Report

Dr. Lakshmi Priya, Chair for the Webinar, introduced the topic by mentioning that the United States designated Abu Sulayfa Muhammad of the ISIS Mozambique as a global terrorist in August 2021. She pointed out that in April 2021, French Company Total Energy withdrew its economic activities in the country owing to the security situation. The violence started in 2017 and has led to the loss of 3000 lives while over a million people have been displaced internally. Stating that a peace deal effort has been ineffective, she called on the Speaker to present the theme.

Ms. Ruchita Beri began her talk by underlining that there are several factors that have led to the rise of Terrorism in Mozambique and it is a matter of concern to the neighbouring African countries as well as to India. The speaker stated that new frontiers of Terrorism were emerging and is finding ground in new places, especially in Southern Africa. The rise of terrorism in Cabo Delgado province in northern Mozambique is a source of concern for the international community as it has the potential to destabilize southern Africa. Initially a youth movement challenging local Sufi establishments, the Al-Shabab Mozambique since 2017 started to engage in armed terror activities and is linked to Ansar al-Sunna which is active in Tanzania and along the east coast of Africa.

Ms. Beri identified that the rise of terrorism was due to ideological as well as tribal, economic and social factors including local grievances like economic isolation and exclusion, forced displacement of the people and resentment against influence of elites drawn from President Filipe Nyusi’s Makonde tribe. Mentioning that the group primarily consists of unemployed youth, Ms. Beri stated that the lure of ideology as well as material benefits were motivational factors to join the terror group. The leadership of the group made up of committed jihadists from Islamist networks in the east African Coast demands the imposition of rule of Sharia Law, has strengthened its hold over time and has acquired capability to operate in coastal waters. Although not much is known about the group’s funding mechanism, it is clear that the economic base is in northern Mozambique and is connected to the illicit economy.

After providing a background of the terror group, Ms. Beri emphasised on the reasons and need for international community to take note of the terrorism in Mozambique. Alarms have been raised by various international actors on the rise of terrorism in Mozambique. She shed light on four factors for the rise in concern among the international community – manifestation of terrorism, natural resources, response of the Mozambican government and the organised crime network in the province. First, the manifestation of violent extremism in Mozambique is a new phenomenon for Southern Africa. Earlier confined only to Tanzania, it now has jihadi connections as well as associations with the Islamic State of Central African province. Second, the province of Cabo Delgado is rich in natural resources. It has vast deposits of rubies and is located close to Mozambique’s offshore natural gas deposits. It is estimated that Mozambique holds about 100 trillion cubic feet of gas and offshores fields, and has been touted as the world’s next energy superpower in the making. The escalation of violence has raised questions over the future of extensive investments by big oil companies like Total, Shell and ONGC Videsh besides others which are involved in major offshore exploration projects.

Ms. Beri identified the third factor as the response of the Mozambican government to stem the tide of terrorism. Despite support from private military companies, Mozambican security forces have been unable to prevent the extremists from taking control of several towns. The deployment of the South African Development Community (SADC) military forces and Rwandan troops on the request of the Mozambican government has yielded some success in countering the growing militancy in the province. Fourth, the dynamic in Cabo Delgado is amplified by the organised crime network involved in illegal trading of timber and rubies in cities like Mocímboa da Praia and Pemba. Reports show that Cabo Delgado is a key point for narcotics trade in the region and trafficking of heroin from Afghanistan via Pakistan. The speaker stated that narcotic trade may be funding the terror activities of Al-Shabab in the region.

Ms. Beri underscored the close ties shared between India and Mozambique and shed light on the implications of the security crisis on India’s interests in the region. She stated that the current conflict has implications on India’s close cooperation in food, energy and maritime security spheres. Indian companies are heavily invested in the energy sector and India also imports pulses from Mozambique. The speaker highlighted that the maritime region around Mozambique was crucial for India-Mozambique defence partnership and India’s strategic outreach to the Vanilla Islands. She underlined the maritime cooperation shared between the Indian Navy and Mozambique; including delivery of fast interceptor boats during Raksha Mantri Rajnath Singh’s visit in 2019; and shed light on the training programme by India to Mozambican defence armed forces.

Ms. Beri assessed that if the conflict continues, humanitarian crisis is likely to grip Mozambique and the wider region would descent to instability. The crisis would influence all aspects of Mozambican economy and impact India’s investments. Stating the existing fear that terrorists may relocate to other areas in the country, Ms. Beri suggested that besides military action, the Mozambican government must open dialogue with the in the region. She proposed that India must consider its options in Mozambique, increase its consultations with the local government and with external actors and leverage its credentials as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and observer status in the SADC and UN. Ms. Beri concluded by stating that bilaterally India could assist Mozambique in counter-terrorism training and share intelligence at a regular basis.

Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy, DG, MP-IDSA shared his remarks on the theme. He began by complimenting Ms. Beri for her presentation which shed light on all salient aspects of the rise of terrorism in Mozambique and succinctly brought out the importance that Mozambique holds for India in historical as well as contemporary political, economic and energy dimensions. Mentioning that the close bilateral ties are not new, Amb. Chinoy stated that the eastern seaboard of Africa has always been of great significance to India’s external engagement across the western Indian Ocean Region. He highlighted the level of integration shared between people of African origin and Indians, and drew concern to the type of terrorism in Mozambique that has emerged over the last two decades interlinked to the demise of Al Qaeda. He identified that offshoot local terrorist movements are ideologically driven and seek internationalisation by congruence with larger established outfits like Al Qaeda and ISIS. Amb. Chinoy shared that besides working closely with the Mozambican authorities, India could engage with countries like Portugal and Brazil to evolve greater consensus in the region. Stating that ‘what happens in Mozambique, will not stay in Mozambique’, he concluded by appreciating Ms. Beri’s talk for highlighting what’s ahead and why it is important.

The speaker responded by agreeing to the comments on the historical ties shared between India and Mozambique, shed light on the role of Indian diaspora in Mozambique’s economy and provided an insight into the complexity of the terrorism in the continent. On partnering with Portugal and Brazil in Africa, Ms. Beri mentioned India’s policy efforts to connect with the Portuguese in Africa, India’s TEAM-9 initiative and Brazil’s investment in natural resources sector in Africa. The webinar concluded with an engaging Q/A session with inputs on target of Al-Shabab which inflicts violence on its own people more than government installations; international sanctions against the terror group; concerns on influence of external terror outfits which could further radicalise the population; concerns on the involvement and future of SADC forces in the conflict; China’s limited involvement in Mozambique and India’s close defence and security cooperation with Mozambique.

Report prepared by Ms. Sindhu Dinesh, Research Analyst, ALACUN Centre, MP-IDSA