Cmde. Abhay K. Singh (Retd.), Research Fellow, MP-IDSA spoke on the topic “Takeaways from Tokyo Summit, 2022: Quad ‘a force for good’ ” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 30 May 2022. The session was chaired by Ms. Shruti Pandalai, Associate Fellow and was attended by  Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, senior scholars & research analysts of MP-IDSA.

Executive Summary

In the recently concluded Quad Summit held in Tokyo, Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi had described Quad as a force of good in terms of creating a positive vision for the nation. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) that was unveiled a day before the summit is a major economic effort by the Quad nations to address the trade deficit among the nations in the region. The IPEF is not a traditional Free Trade Agreement (FTA) but a trade facilitation framework to formulate a common set of rules and standards for the member states. The IPEF is bound to bring coherence to rules and procedures which can effectively reduce non-tariff barriers and facilitate a smooth flow of trade. Although the Quad never really laid emphasis on hard security issues, the latest joint statement has made Quad’s security concerns with China very upfront if not explicit.

The most important highlight of the summit was the consensus among the four leaders on the view that the unilateral change of the status quo through the use of force will not be tolerated in the Indo-Pacific or in any other region. In the joint statement, the four nations have signaled their political consensus and commitment for working together in critical areas such as infrastructure development, counterterrorism, climate change, COVID Pandemic, space cooperation, cyber security and emerging technologies. The joint statement also made an oblique reference to China by denouncing its recent actions including threatening to unilaterally change the status quo in the region. Also, the Quad nations have welcomed the interest of the European Union in the Indo-Pacific.

Detailed Report

Ms. Shruti Pandalai, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA commenced the session by making her observations on the recently concluded Quad Summit held in Tokyo, where she highlighted Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statement made during the meeting in which he described the Quad as ‘a force for good’. She further went on to underscore the problem solving approach taken up by the Quad leaders and the focus on building robust cooperation for facilitating engagement despite the substantial differences among them regarding the ongoing Ukraine Conflict. Flagging certain key aspects of Quad,   Ms. Pandalai reiterated that although the Quad never really laid emphasis on hard security issues, the latest joint statement has made Quad’s security concerns with China very upfront if not explicit. In terms of deliverables, she stated the Quad debt management research portal and the pledge of about fifty billion dollars for infrastructure development in the region are the key outcomes of the Quad summit. With these opening remarks, Ms. Pandalai invited Cmde. Abhay Singh to give his presentation.

Cmde. Abhay K. Singh, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA, began his presentation by making an assessment of the IPEF that was unveiled a day before the Quad Summit in Tokyo. As a US-led initiative to counter the growing economic and strategic influence in the region, Cmde. Singh described the IPEF as an effort by the US to address the trade deficit among the Indo-Pacific nations. He further traced the evolution of the IPEF from when the initiative was first announced in October 2021 at the East Asia Summit, where President Joe Biden in his virtual address, announced the idea of the IPEF. Again in February 2022 the IPEF was mentioned when the Biden Administration’s Indo-Pacific Strategy was unveiled. Cmde. Singh went on to compare IPEF with other regional economic frameworks such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). IPEF consists of thirteen member states including nations from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the South Pacific constituting forty percent of global GDP.

Describing the IPEF as not a traditional Free Trade Agreement (FTA), Cmde. Singh explained that the initiative is rather a trade facilitation framework to formulate a common set of rules and standards for the member states. Citing the four pillars of IPEF that encompass the development of digital trade, resilient supply chains, green energy and corruption-free trade, Cmde. Singh stated that despite several briefings and factsheets there has been a lack of clarity regarding the individual obligations of the member states toward these areas. Taking stock of the US role in leading the negotiation for all four pillars of IPEF, he brought out the argument that the economic framework cannot effectively match China without binding rules and assurance for market access. He mentioned some of the criticism about IPEF that point to the lack of strategic clarity and describes it as a laundry list of American demands. Cmde. Singh also highlighted some of the positive comments that regard IPEF as a pragmatic approach for building domestic consensus in the US, in line with Biden’s foreign policy focused on protecting the interests of the American middle class. He stated that the IPEF is bound to bring coherence in rules and procedures by effectively reducing non-tariff barriers and facilitating a smooth flow of trade.

Cmde. Singh noted that during the Quad Summit each of the four leaders’ remarks had signaled their priorities and the expectation from the Quad which are as follows:

• Prime Minister Fumio Kishida:  In his statement, strongly condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine and underscored that the Quad must never allow such actions to unfold in the Indo-Pacific region. The statement also signaled that the Quad shall collaborate with other regional players to oppose any attempts to unilaterally change the status quo in the region.
• Prime Minister Anthony Albanese: The newly elected Australian Prime Minister in his statement made it very clear that despite the change in leadership, Australia’s commitment to Quad and ASEAN centrality shall not change. He announced his new Government’s priority will seamlessly align with the Quad’s agenda in the areas of taking action against climate change and at the same time building a stronger and resilient Indo-Pacific region.
• Prime Minister Narendra Modi: He reiterated the importance and influence of Quad on the global stage. He also underscored Quad’s constructivist agenda and laid emphasis on creating an image of the grouping as ‘a force for good’.
• President Joe Biden: Strongly denouncing the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Biden described the ongoing crisis as not only a European issue but a global issue. He also brought out that the War in Ukraine has severely aggravated the global food crisis.

The consensus among the four leaders on the view that the unilateral change of the status quo through the use of force will not be tolerated in the Indo-Pacific or in any other region was described by Cmde. Singh as the key highlight of Quad Summit. Making the assessment of the joint statement, Cmde. Singh inferred that the key focus of the Quad nations was on delivering the agendas that were agreed upon during the previous iterations of the summit. He also noted that through the joint statement the four nations have signaled their political consensus and commitment to work together for creating tangible benefits in the following areas:

• EU’s Indo-Pacific Strategy: The Quad nations have welcomed the interest of the European Union in the Indo-Pacific.
• Chinese Expansionism: The joint statement also made an oblique reference to China by denouncing its recent actions including threatening to unilaterally change the status quo in the region, disrupting fishing and militarisation of islands in the South China Sea and the East China Sea.
• Terrorism: On terrorism, the joint statement unequivocally condemned acts of terrorism including the 26/11 and Pathankot attacks in India. It denounced the use of terrorism as a proxy and reiterated the demand that Afghan soil shall not be used as a breeding ground for terrorism.
• Infrastructure Development: The Joint Statement expressed resolve to synchronise Quad’s infrastructure development in accordance with the needs of ASEAN Nations.
• COVID Pandemic:  The statement also stressed on Quad’s commitment to fighting against COVID and future pandemics by making a contribution of 5.2 billion dollars to COVAX Advance Market Commitment (AMC) programme.
• Climate Change: The launch of the Quad Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Package (Q-CHAMP) signifies the grouping’s collective resolve to fight against climate change. 
• Cyber Security: The statement focused on developing partnerships among the four nations for capacity building in order to manage emerging cyber security threats. The statement also brought out that the first-ever Quad Cybersecurity Day will be initiated soon.
• Critical and Emerging Technologies: The Quad nations also resolved to leverage each other’s strengths for the development of critical technologies. However, the statement also expressed concerns about securing a reliable supply chain for this purpose.
• Track Five Diplomacy: The statement announced the launch of the Quad Fellowship programme, in which nearly a hundred fellowships would be offered to students and researchers from the four nations for pursuing studies and research in the areas of science and technology.
• Space Cooperation: The statement announced the launch of the Quad satellite data portal for enabling public access of member countries for deriving data from earth observation satellites. This portal will enhance Quad monitoring and coordination capabilities in the areas of climate change, Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response (HADR) and sustainable use of marine resources.
• Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA): The Indo-Pacific Partnership for MDA (IPPMDA) for combating IUU fishing has been launched. The IPPMDA will work in consultation and coordination with the various maritime information fusion centres in the Indo-Pacific region. The cooperation in MDA among the Quad nations is aimed at making the seas more transparent and upholding vigil by making optimum utilisation of surveillance assets in the region.

Pointing out certain shortcomings in the Quad, Cmde. Singh stated that despite President Biden reiterating that his policy is sharply focused on managing China, there has been criticism that the Quad remains short on American fiscal and policy support. He stated that it has become clear that the Quad nations along with other nations of the region must supplement the shortcomings of the US. He brought out that the election of the Labor Government in Australia that has been known to be sympathetic towards China’s rise, may affect the nation’s future commitment towards Quad, despite the assurances of Mr. Anthony Albanese. On India, he stated that Russia not being explicitly mentioned in the Joint Statement is mainly due to India’s sensitivity and this signifies major divergence between India and the rest of the Quad nations.  Cmde. Singh concluded his presentation by describing Japan as the most consistent nation among the Quad, as its core agenda remains unchanged, despite the change of three consecutive Prime Ministers.

Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, stated that the first concrete activity carried out by the Quad towards enhancing security cooperation was during a counterterrorism tabletop exercise conducted in New Delhi in November 2019. Subsequently, in 2021 the Quad attempted to buildup on the 2019 counterterrorism exercise by expanding it into a strategic gaming exercise which is still in progress. He also brought out that the Quad could be expanded to include some ASEAN nations that are situated at the center of the Indo-Pacific in order to uphold ‘ASEAN centrality’.  

During the Q&A Session, responding to a question by Gen. Bakshi on the hard security issues being underplayed in Quad, Cmde. Singh stated that the security component of the Quad has deliberately been underplayed, as the Quad does want to be seen as an ‘Asian NATO’ as described by some nations. He said that the Malabar naval exercise of the Quad Navies has progressively evolved to undertake complex tactical operations and if the need arises the navies of the four nations can spontaneously undertake coordinated security operations. Responding to a question on whether the Quad could potentially replace the plethora of regional organisations operating in the region, Cmde. Singh stated that the multiple regional organisations are indeed necessary to build consensus and encourage dialogue among the various nations in the Indo-Pacific, as each forum will have its own convergences and divergences.

Key Takeaways:

• The IPEF is not a traditional Free Trade Agreement (FTA) but a trade facilitation framework to formulate a common set of rules and standards for member states.
• The IPEF is bound to bring coherence to rules and procedures. It can effectively reduce non-tariff barriers and facilitate a smooth flow of trade.
• The joint statement made the Quad’s security concerns over China very upfront if not explicit.
• The statement also reflected on the political consensus and commitment of the Quad nations to work together in the critical areas of infrastructure development, counterterrorism, climate change, COVID Pandemic, space cooperation, cyber security and emerging technologies.

• Report prepared by Dr R. Vignesh, Research Analyst, Military Affairs Centre, MP-IDSA