The interaction was held on 15 July 2022 and the session was chaired by the Director-General, Ambassador Sujan Chinoy. Deputy Director-General Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) and research faculty from the institute were also present. The topic for discussion was “ASEAN-India Partnership in an Era of Rising China”, and the speaker was Professor (Dr.) Bilveer Singh from Department of Political Science, National University of Singapore.

Executive Summary:

The interaction was useful in understanding Southeast Asian perspectives of India, particularly Singapore. The region of Indo-Pacific is poised for large-scale development and growth but will also face challenges due to geopolitical rivalry. The ASEAN nations are vulnerable and fear getting caught between China and the US. States such as Singapore invest heavily in areas of human resource development, research and innovation, finance and emerging technologies, to maintain its leadership role in the region. The influence of China, economic and military, is too pervasive for Southeast Asian states to successfully resist. 

Detailed Report:

The session began with Ambassador Chinoy’s welcome remarks addressed to Dr. Singh, and his introduction to the audience. Dr. Singh has studied comparative politics, aadicalisation and counter-terrorism, security policy of Indonesia, and Singapore’s foreign policy. Ambassador Chinoy outlined the relationship between India and ASEAN, and highlighted the deep historical and cultural linkages between the two regions. India and Southeast Asia have interacted with each other’s states and peoples since centuries and in a number of ways including trade and business, spirituality and religion, and politics and diplomacy. It also has had influences from China, which had been the other large civilisation in the proximity, and the Gulf region, from where Islamic influence came by the way of trade. Amidst all these external influences, Southeast Asian nations have developed a distinct identity and culture, and hold their own political worldview.

Ambassador Chinoy posed some questions for the speaker and the audience such as tackling of China, and India’s options in that regard, the focus on trade or defence in its relations with Southeast Asia, India’s role and approach to the South China Sea issue etc. Dr. Singh acknowledged the deep footprints of India in the culture and society of Southeast Asia. He started to explain the current scenario of China’s relations with the region. Countries like Singapore have felt the pressure from China in context to their engagements with the US. Even as ASEAN wishes to remain neutral in this power struggle between the two superpowers, it becomes increasingly vulnerable. China’s growing naval capacities and frequent incursion into the maritime territories of ASEAN nations is well-known. It has ramped up insecurities among these ASEAN nations that are also claimant states in the South China Sea dispute such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei.

The situation in Singapore is particularly intensifying. The racial undertones in the Singaporean society may be becoming more explicit with increasing tensions among large powers outside the country. Singapore’s relations with Taiwan are also a matter of concern and could potentially become a flashpoint for crisis in the region. Given the geopolitical push and pull faced by Singapore, its relations with India are of significance. India’s vast experience in counter-terrorism can be a major area of cooperation with Southeast Asia. Trade relations between the two sides are already strong but have much more potential. India’s increasing participation in the security dynamics of the region through the Quad, and bilateral cooperation will help maintain balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, as it may be becoming less stable.

The audience also had some questions on the subject of discussion. In response to a query about whether China may attack Taiwan, Dr. Singh clarified that such a turn of events is unlikely although not entirely unthinkable. A lot may depend upon the internal politics of Taiwan and which party may come to power. Some factions in Taiwan may be more receptive to Beijing’s influence than others. However, Taiwan’s economy is highly dependent on China which limits its strategic maneuverability to a large extent. In response to a query on demographics of Singapore, Dr. Singh replied that a majority Chinese population has been the convention and the elite may not be in favour of changing or diluting that despite no constitutional obligation. Dr. Singh believed that to counter Chinese influence, it is important for countries in the region to radically upgrade defence cooperation and joint military training. ASEAN states like Singapore will continue to hedge among large powers in the region to ensure a vibrant economy and reliable security. The role of the US in that regard becomes important but it is unclear how much can Washington commit to the region in the face of changing and unstable politics in its own domestic landscape. 

The report was prepared by Mr. Akash Sahu, Research Analyst, Southeast Asia and Oceania Centre, MP-IDSA.