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Burundi Elections 2015: An Endless Cycle of Political and Social Unrest

Kuhoo Saxena
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Cover Story

The incumbent President Pierre Nkurunziza and his ruling party the National Council of Defense of Democracy-Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) have claimed an early victory in the parliamentary elections that were held on 29th June, 2015. The presidential elections are to be held on July 15th, 2015. However, the months leading up to these elections have been marked by protests and violence and has led to immense political and social instability in the country. For the Burundians a non-violent electoral process was significant for the consolidation of peace and economic recovery in the country, as well as for democracy in the wider Great Lakes region. However, the decision of the current President, Pierre Nkurunziza, to run for the third term had sparked anger among the opposition parties and Burundian population as they saw this move as unconstitutional. Burundi’s constitution only allows two terms as was agreed in 2000 negotiations of the Arusha Peace deal, which was signed in 2003, thus ending the long drawn civil war between the Tutsi and Hutu tribes. But Nkurunziza argues that when he was elected for the first time in the post-war democratic elections in 2005, it was a nomination by the legislature. Hence, in his opinion the win in 2010 elections would be considered as the first win for him through popular vote.

Revival of ethnic cleavages and the fear of another civil war

Even though many argue that the pre-election unrest has occurred solely as result of Nkurunziza’s decision to run for the third term, one cannot fully disregard the entrenched ethnic cleavages in the Burundian society as a catalyst for political and social unrest. In Burundi, the scars of the civil war have still not waned. Hence any kind of political unrest makes Burundian people fearful of another civil war like situation.11 Ethnic divisions in Burundi have always played a crucial role in the fierce competition for state power. In addition to this, the elites in Burundi with the help of the army have always employed different strategies to stay in power.22

During the Belgian colonial rule and after independence in 1962, it was the dominant Tutsi minority military leaders who had monopoly over the Burundian polity. They occupied higher levels in the government, the full command structure of the army, the police and security forces, and the judicial system.33 After a failed uprising by the Hutus in 1972, the predominately Tutsi army slaughtered at least 100,000 members of the Hutu majority, seeking to rid the country of Hutu intellectuals.44 In 1993, after Burundi’s first democratically elected president, Melchior Ndadaye, a Hutu, was assassinated by the group of Tutsi hardliners, the country again descended into a wave of ethnically motivated killings, as civilian mobs of Hutu unleashed their collective fury on the Tutsi peasants.55 This led to an estimated 300,000 people being killed in the civil war before the cease-fire agreement (Arusha Peace Accord) was signed between the government and the Nkurunziza’s CNDD-FDD, the most prominent rebel faction then.

Nkurunziza, when elected to power in 2005, exceeded many expectations regarding his ability to consolidate peace. There has been a noticeable reduction in the ethnic tensions since the peace deal was signed as it guaranteed significant representation for both Hutus and Tutsis in the army, police and all branches of the government. This complex powersharing provision was enshrined in the Burundian Constitution as a result of the Arusha peace negotiations.66 The civil war was fought partly over the issue of ethnic exclusion, so the Burundian Constitution required the executive and legislative organs to be multiethnic.77 However, despite the relative success, the current regime has been accused of not totally following the spirit of the Arusha Agreement, particularly its emphasis on consensual politics. As a result of this, the political climate in Burundi before the presidential elections has remained tense and has caused many Burundians to flee the country as they are fearful that another civil war might breakout. According to the UNHCR, since the protests had erupted in April 2015, 50,000 people have fled Burundi to escape the spiraling pre-election violence.88 UNHCR spokesman Adrian Edwards stated that in May 2015, many Burundians crossed into Rwanda (25,004), but there was a sharp increase in people seeking asylum in Tanzania (17,696) after entry restrictions there were lifted. In addition to this, almost 8,000 people have crossed into South Kivu province in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.99 A day before the Burundian borders were going to be closed for the parliamentary elections, 10,000 more refugees have fled from Burundi, making the total number of Burundians fleeing to 144,000.1010 In all these cases, women and children, including a large number of unaccompanied children, are in the majority.

Nkurunziza’s Repressive Regime

Another reason for the rise of social unrest and large street protests is due to people’s distrust in the government and the fact that in the past few years Nkurunzia rule has become increasingly dictatorial. Amnesty International in its 2014-15 report on Burundi has said that there is a shrinking of political space under the CNDD-FDD rule and government repression of critical voices has intensified over the last year.1111 In 2014, Pierre Claver Mbonimpa, President of the local human rights organization, the Association for the Protection of Human Rights and Detained Persons (Association pour la Protection des Droits Humains et des Personnes Détenues, APRODH,) was arrested following some comments he made on the radio alleging that young men were receiving arms, uniforms and traveling to the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo for military training.1212 He was released later in the year on medical grounds. Members of the opposition, civil society activists, lawyers and journalists were among those who faced heightened restrictions as the 2015 elections approached.

In January 2015, the government sentenced a top opposition chief to five years in prison for bribery and arrested another for having links to a rebel group. Action against the two leaders came amid growing fears of the risk of violence ahead of elections. The opposition leaders said the arrests were the government’s way of blocking them from running for seats. Frederic Bamvuginyuvira, a former Burundian vice-president and current deputy leader for the Front for Democracy (Frodebu) party, was sentenced to five years in jail for bribery following a sex scandal.1313 He accused the government for removing him from the electoral race. Frodebu youth leader Patrick Nkurunziza was also arrested. He is the most prominent figure held in connection with a rebel force that entered the country from neighboring eastern Democratic Republic of Congo earlier this month.1414 The military crackdown on cross-border attacks against Burundi by rebel groups based in Democratic Republic of Congo resulted in the death of a 100 people.1515

There is a militia attached to the pro-government movement known as Imbonerakure which has been threatening and intimidating those who are critical of Nkurunzia and his party CNDDFDD.1616 UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein is deeply concerned about the increasingly violent and threatening actions by this pro-government militia. There have been cases of kidnapping, beating and even brutal killings of people who supporting the opposition leaders. This has been one of the main reasons behind the vast number of Burundian’s fleeing the country. Numerous refugees claimed that threats had been scrawled across the doors and walls of their own or other people’s houses, some being marked with a cross, apparently in order to identify people to be targeted or attacked, or as a means of sowing terror.

In addition to political repression there is clamp down on freedom of speech in the country. Journalists are being harassed and radio stations prevented from broadcasting so as to contain protests.1717 The Radio Publique Africaine (RPA), Burundi’s most popular privately-owned radio station, was also closed. An editor of RPA barely survived an assassination attempt.1818 Hit lists with the names of the opponents and critics of the government were circulating according to a journalist. The activities of opposition members and human rights activists are increasingly being restricted, according to Gesine Ames of the Berlin office of the Ecumenical Network for Central Africa, a coalition of Christian organizations promoting human rights, peace and development in Africa’s Great Lake region. Ames argues that the ruling party has become repressive and laws have been passed to restrict the opposition from holding gatherings.1919 The government has also only given the opposition right to campaign for two weeks before each of the two elections. However, Ames also blames that the opposition itself had not resolved its infighting and has been incapable to putting up a united front against the CNDD-FDD.

Presidential elections to take place despite domestic and international pressure

The parliamentary elections were due to be held in May 2015, however major events and political and social developments occurred that led to the postponement of the elections to June and July. First, there was an attempted coup by General Godefroid Niyombare, a former rebel CNDD-FDD commander and ally of President Nkurunziza, to try to over throw Nkurunziza.2020 The generals opposed to Nkurunziza’s bid for a third term in office. This occurred at the time when the President had left for a summit in Tanzania that month. Nevertheless, the coup failed after five days and led to Nkurunziza sacking the foreign ministers and General Godefroid Niyombare after surviving the attempted coup. Second, Zedi Feruzi, a leader of an opposition party, had been shot dead along with his bodyguard in Bujumbura. Leading opposition figure, Agathon Rwasa, said there was no information on who had killed Feruzi, but claimed that this was a retaliation against Feruzi’s criticism of President Pierre Nkurunziza’s decision to stand for a third term in office.2121 These events had created an intense and fragile environment ahead of the elections.

The international community has been pressuring Nkurunziza to not run for a third term. The US Department of State in a press statement in April voiced their deep regret of Burundi’s disregard for the Arusha Agreement and had called all parties to refrain from violent actions, including hate speech or other provocations, which could feed the climate of fear and instability.2222 High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad at a press conference at the UN Electoral Observation Mission in Burundi (MENUB), had shown concerns about the rising tensions in the pre-election period. He argued that Burundi had a choice between free and fair elections that would strengthen and mature Burundi’s still fragile democracy, and enable an improvement in its dire socio-economic situation, and a path of violence and intimidation aimed instead at subverting democracy for the sake of gaining or maintaining political power.2323 However, Pierre Nkurunziza chose the path of violence for the sake of gaining political power by not backing down from running for the third term. Seeing that elections were being held amidst such violence in Burundi the European Union (EU) withdrew its election poll observers from Burundi. EU also announced that Burundi’s decision to go ahead with the election despite repetitive pleas to delay it, could also lead to a suspension of EU aid. The EU said a month ago it had suspended its election observation mission but on Monday it said it had been forced to “definitely withdraw” the observers.2424 The US Department of State in a press statement on June 29, 2015 also condemned the decision to go ahead with the elections by the government despite the fragile political and social situation in Burundi.2525

It is clear that Nkurunziza is not going to succumb to international pressure and will go ahead with the presidential elections on July 15, 2015 as well. It can also be said that voter turnout would be small as in the case parliamentary elections. One can also agree with the opposition that the credibility of the election process cannot be ensured due to the international community withdrawing their poll observers. Hence, it is likely that Pierre Nkurunziza will win the presidential elections, just as his party has already won by a clear majority in the parliamentary one. The violence and socio-political unrest preceding these elections has deprived the Burundian people of their right for a free and democratic elections. Nkurunziza’s circumvention of all the agreements of the Arusha Accord and his coercive tactics, to the surprise of all his critics, is a reaffirmation of the beliefs that the forthcoming government would be repressive and that the Burundian people would have to live in an environment of constant fear. Burundi’s hope for peace and stability is bleak.

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