Challenges for Post-Revolution Egypt
Since the fall of the Hosni Mubarak regime, the political turn of events in Egypt has been dramatic and the future is unpredictable at present. A number of new political actors and stakeholders are trying to create a new system of their own choice. This has led to a clash of interests among them and in the absence of a clearly mentioned road map for the future, the situation remains unclear.
The post-revolution elections were hailed as a beacon for the future of democracy in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood won the presidential elections and its leader Mohamed Morsi became the first president after the fall of Mubarak. On the other hand, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) which took over the interim command of the country immediately after Mubarak continues to be apprehensive about the smooth transition to a democratic system and it does not seem to have absolute confidence on the newly elected assembly. Thus, the newly elected assembly that claims to represent the people lacks legitimacy in the eyes of the military. However, slowly, Morsi is asserting himself as the elected leader of the country. This is reflected by the fact that he has dismissed Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, who was head of the SCAF since the revolution, and Sami Anan, the chief of staff, and has appointed both of them as his advisers.
Amidst the hiccups of transition, and with the Muslim Brotherhood coming to power with such a huge mandate, there are concerns and apprehensions regarding the rise of Islamic extremism in the country. Though Morsi has promised his people a modern democratic state, all the sections of the society are not convinced by mere promises and want them to be implemented properly. There are also fears in the minds of the Coptic Christians who constitute around 10 per cent of the total population of the country. The statements and conduct of the party until now have given no cause for alarm as it has remained peaceful and non-violent. It is hoped that in the new political environment, the Muslim Brotherhood will act as a responsible political party rather than as an underground Islamist outfit.
Also, the Muslim Brotherhood while in power will face pressures from both Islamist elements and the secular blocks: while the Islamists would want a more conservative and religious political and social structure, the liberals will want a more secular and modern democratic country. Apparently, there will be pressure on Morsi from both sides while framing the constitution for the country. It would be a real test for the Muslim Brotherhood and other political parties, who have entered into the electoral politics post-revolution, to show their political aptitude in laying the foundations for building democratic institutions.
Apart from the gigantic tasks of democracy, since the beginning of the protests in Egypt, Iran has shown its support for the popular movement. Iran hailed the victory of the Muslim Brotherhood in the elections and termed it as the “final stage of the Islamic Awakening” in Egypt. The Iranian Vice President made a visit to Cairo and met President Morsi, indicating the Iranian desire to build up ties with Cairo and make a fresh start. The new government will be under tremendous pressure from countries like Saudi Arabia and USA over its ties with Tehran. But at present it seems that, for Egypt, realpolitik will prevail over any ideological or Islamic premises, thus according priority to USA and Saudi Arabia than the strengthening of ties with Tehran.
Israel has been worried about the result of the protests in Egypt. Israel is apprehensive of any change of guard in Egypt that would strengthen the power of the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamists. It is also concerned about the fact that it may adversely impact the ongoing peace process with the Palestinians. Though the Israeli official statement “appreciates the democratic process in Egypt and respects the results of the presidential elections”, it certainly has apprehensions about the ascendancy of the Muslim Brotherhood to power which has kept no secret of its anti-Israel sentiments and its close relationship with the Hamas. It is worried whether the new government in Cairo will respect the 1979 peace treaty. The new regime will have to adopt a cautious approach in its relationship with Israel, which in many ways will determine the future of peace in the region.
The new government in Cairo faces multiple challenges to take the revolution forward. Thus, sustaining the democratic surge and building consensus with all the stakeholders in power, and at the same time reshaping the foreign policy of the country will be the first priorities for the present government.
