The Russia–Ukraine conflict has put Kazakhstan’s foreign policy to a severe test. Though there are similarities between Ukraine and Kazakhstan, the NATO factor doesn’t exist in the case of the latter. In Kazakhstan’s approach to the Russia–Ukraine conflict, it is possible to discern a distinct tilt towards Russia.
While the end state of the Russia–Ukraine conflict is still afar, an analysis of the conflict and war fighting so far, shows that there are enough early lessons for the strategic and military practitioners to decipher and take note of.
With the war in Ukraine moving towards an uncertain resolution, there is a danger that the influx of heavy weaponry and foreign fighters could bring in a new set of imponderables into an already vicious and escalating conflict.
While the US, Japan and Australia have taken an overtly critical stand towards Russia at the UN, India has abstained from all the UN resolutions condemning Russia. Will divergent views over the Ukrainian crisis weaken the Quad, is a pertinent question being examined in this issue brief.
Turkey is facing serious challenges in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Its response to the conflict could have far-reaching implications for its struggling economy, damaged relations with the US and EU, its complex partnership with Russia, and for the regional security architecture in the Black Sea.
Cyberconflict in Ukraine has become normalised in that it is focused, there is no lasting damage, and it effectively conveys a sense of helplessness to the affected government and population. At the same time, it signals to other governments that they are not impervious to such attacks.
The Ukrainian crisis is less about Ukraine, its national politics and foreign policy, and more about redefining the rules not only of the European security but also the international order and the simmering rivalry between great powers in particular.
As the emerging Cold War theatrics and veto politics threaten to further paralyse the functioning of UNSC, the Ukraine crisis is unlikely to abate any time soon.
Kremlin’s increasingly assertive stance on the troop build-up along the Russia–Ukraine border can be viewed as not just prompted by Ukraine’s potential NATO membership but also as Russia underscoring its place as a stakeholder in shaping European security architecture.
